{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5", "slug": "kxtrumppardon-27jan01", "question": "Will Trump pardon anyone in 2026?", "category": "politics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "politics", "trump-pardons", "us-politics", "criminal-justice", "2027", "prediction-market" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether specific named individuals receive a U.S. presidential pardon before January 1, 2027. All 32 contracts are binary yes/no questions structured identically across a single platform. Each resolves via Kalshi staff determination, referencing contemporaneous news sources. No cross-platform structural difference exists here; all markets price individual pardon outcomes, not aggregate pardon volume or timing.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FQTXM5TS23", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 0.1, "implied_probability": 0.1 }, "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-HQCKGKWHV4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DJT", "question": "Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Donald Trump", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Donald Trump: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual receives a presidential pardon, based on New York Times reporting, by January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "New York Times", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "sources": [ { "name": "New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "White House", "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": "White House", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 90, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0.063, "implied_probability": 0.063, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 618.3387, "settlement_style": 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null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "keonne rodriguez", "person" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-930MG8V2J7", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU", "question": "Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Derek Chauvin", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Derek Chauvin: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual receives a presidential pardon, based on New York Times reporting, by January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Derek Chauvin has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and 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"ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPYWY06SJ8", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKUS", "question": "Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Jared Kushner", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Jared Kushner: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual receives a presidential pardon, based on New York Times reporting, by January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Jared Kushner has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "New York Times", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "sources": [ { "name": "New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "White House", "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": "White House", "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 90, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0.095, "implied_probability": 0.095, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 468.0327, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "jared kushner", "person", "politics" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": 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} ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-LB75FH2RG7", "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN", "question": "Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Steve Bannon", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Steve Bannon: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual receives a presidential pardon, based on New York Times reporting, by January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Steve Bannon has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "New York Times", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "sources": [ { "name": "New 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"platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX", "question": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Ghislaine Maxwell", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Ghislaine Maxwell: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual receives a presidential pardon, based on New York Times reporting, by January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Ghislaine Maxwell has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "New York Times", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "sources": [ { "name": "New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", 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"KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BMEN", "question": "Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?", "description": "Bob Menendez", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Bob Menendez: Kalshi staff determination of whether the named individual receives a presidential pardon, based on New York Times reporting, by January 1, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Bob Menendez has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "New York Times", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "sources": [ { "name": "New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "White House", "url": 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