{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
  "slug": "kxtrumprallies-26nov03",
  "question": "Trump rallies count, January 1 to February 1, 2027",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      30,
      35
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 70
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 58
      },
      {
        "threshold": 35,
        "prob": 38
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40,
        "prob": 27
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-midterms",
    "trump-rallies",
    "political-events",
    "2026",
    "quantitative-metric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Trump rally activity from January 1 through November 3, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as six discrete strike thresholds: above 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40 rallies. The spread between live strikes functions as an implied distribution over the final count. Kalshi staff determination on February 1, 2027 resolves each binary against the official tally.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CW59VDN325",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.33,
    "implied_probability": 0.33
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P4FWL2KJ42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A15",
      "question": "Will the number of Trump rallies be above 15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 15",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15: Kalshi staff determination on February 1, 2027 whether the named subject's activity count exceeded the specified threshold during the referenced period.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Trump rallies is above 15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). \n\nAs of 5/27/26, the count is 7.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 36,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2161.4616,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "midterms",
        "rallies",
        "trump",
        "trump rallies jan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZCCKQVPVH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A20",
      "question": "Will the number of Trump rallies be above 20 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 20",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20: Kalshi staff determination on February 1, 2027 whether the named subject's activity count exceeded the specified threshold during the referenced period.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Trump rallies is above 20 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). \n\nAs of 5/27/26, the count is 7.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 36,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1251.8856,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "midterms",
        "rallies",
        "trump",
        "trump rallies jan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H1010HMD03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A25",
      "question": "Will the number of Trump rallies be above 25 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 25",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 25: Kalshi staff determination on February 1, 2027 whether the named subject's activity count exceeded the specified threshold during the referenced period.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Trump rallies is above 25 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). \n\nAs of 5/27/26, the count is 7.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 36,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1151.03,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "midterms",
        "rallies",
        "trump",
        "trump rallies jan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J8ZBR4Z0Z1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A30",
      "question": "Will the number of Trump rallies be above 30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 30",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 30: Kalshi staff determination on February 1, 2027 whether the named subject's activity count exceeded the specified threshold during the referenced period.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Trump rallies is above 30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). \n\nAs of 5/27/26, the count is 7.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 36,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 331.0053,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "midterms",
        "rallies",
        "trump",
        "trump rallies jan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CW59VDN325",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A35",
      "question": "Will the number of Trump rallies be above 35 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 35",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 35: Kalshi staff determination on February 1, 2027 whether the named subject's activity count exceeded the specified threshold during the referenced period.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Trump rallies is above 35 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). \n\nAs of 5/27/26, the count is 7.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 36,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 219.087,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "midterms",
        "rallies",
        "trump",
        "trump rallies jan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VWLWFKNDZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A40",
      "question": "Will the number of Trump rallies be above 40 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?",
      "description": "Above 40",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 40: Kalshi staff determination on February 1, 2027 whether the named subject's activity count exceeded the specified threshold during the referenced period.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of Trump rallies is above 40 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). \n\nAs of 5/27/26, the count is 7.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 36,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.6000000000000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 834.8287,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "midterms",
        "rallies",
        "trump",
        "trump rallies jan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}