{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
  "slug": "kxtslaa-28jandel",
  "question": "Tesla total deliveries, 2026",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1750000,
      1800000
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1500000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1550000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1600000,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1650000,
        "prob": 86
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      {
        "threshold": 1700000,
        "prob": 76
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      {
        "threshold": 1750000,
        "prob": 50
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      {
        "threshold": 1800000,
        "prob": 32
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1850000,
        "prob": 22
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1900000,
        "prob": 12
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "tesla-deliveries",
    "automotive-sales",
    "2026-performance",
    "company-metrics",
    "ev-industry"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Tesla's total vehicle deliveries for full-year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of eight discrete strike thresholds, from 1.5 million to 1.9 million units, each resolved independently by Kalshi staff determination. The authoritative source is Tesla's official earnings documents or SEC filings. Resolution occurs in March 2028, allowing time for final annual figures to be reported and verified.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MYS3HP23X4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.33,
    "implied_probability": 0.33
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C69XRJ4D32",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1500000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.5 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.5 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.5 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1500000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6399.389999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C16F7AE257",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8GN1VGR6W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1550000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.55 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.55 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.55 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1550000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1550000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6644C81E72",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWCLZCPW91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1600000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.6 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.6 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.6 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1600000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.9854999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 5790.231,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1600000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4FBE6A3FB0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RPN2NVLV3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1650000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.65 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.65 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.65 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1650000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.84,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4710.0144,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1650000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E7F987638A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LYWGWL1F07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1700000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.7 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.7 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.7 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1700000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.5264,
      "volume_total_usd": 5875.704,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1700000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5BAF016B03",
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      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CBDWD1JV27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1750000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.75 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.75 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.75 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1750000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "caps": [
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      "last_price": 0.52,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "threshold": 1750000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8310A3EDF",
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      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MYS3HP23X4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1800000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.8 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.8 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.8 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1800000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "score": 84,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.023100000000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 824.0001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1800000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B1C4480819",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FZ3MHJTMV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1850000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.85 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.85 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.85 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1850000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 1850000,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E64FD46AB",
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      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQ34J1LHM5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1900000.0",
      "question": "Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.9 million total deliveries in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.9 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.9 million: Tesla's annual delivery figures as reported in its official earnings documents or SEC filings resolve on March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1900000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.12,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1000.4399999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1900000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5729958E22",
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      "tags": [
        "tesla total deliveries"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P8JH8CZ8V3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}