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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDW9695BR8",
  "slug": "kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "texas-politics",
    "2027-election",
    "republican-primary",
    "senate-race",
    "margin-threshold"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff, resolving May 26, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as discrete margin tiers across two candidates: five bins each for Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, covering 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, 15-20%, and 20%+. This discrete-tier structure prices the distribution of the margin, not merely the winner. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination referencing certified results from Texas election authorities.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5M9M0RG2G5",
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    "implied_probability": 0.996
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5M9M0RG2G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDW9695BR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P60",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 20%+",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 20%+: Texas election authorities certify official results for the referenced statewide race, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff review of the certified margin of victory by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 20% and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\n- **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For raw votes**: the total votes received by Ken Paxton minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For electoral votes**: the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Paxton wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Paxton does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 15-20%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 15-20%: Texas election authorities certify official results for the referenced statewide race, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff review of the certified margin of victory by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 15% and 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\n- **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For raw votes**: the total votes received by Ken Paxton minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For electoral votes**: the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Paxton wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Paxton does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "tags": [
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        "texas"
      ],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1NMRN2B1M5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDW9695BR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P12",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 10-15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 10-15%: Texas election authorities certify official results for the referenced statewide race, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff review of the certified margin of victory by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 10% and 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\n- **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For raw votes**: the total votes received by Ken Paxton minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For electoral votes**: the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Paxton wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Paxton does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 630.43,
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      "tags": [
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        "margin",
        "republican",
        "runoff",
        "senate",
        "texas"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4039CRX3X9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDW9695BR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 5-10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 5-10%: Texas election authorities certify official results for the referenced statewide race, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff review of the certified margin of victory by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 5% and 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\n- **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For raw votes**: the total votes received by Ken Paxton minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For electoral votes**: the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Paxton wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Paxton does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDW9695BR8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton, 0-5%: Texas election authorities certify official results for the referenced statewide race, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff review of the certified margin of victory by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 0% and 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\n- **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For raw votes**: the total votes received by Ken Paxton minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.\n- **For electoral votes**: the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Paxton wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Paxton does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.\n\nIf Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
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        "runoff",
        "senate",
        "texas"
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      "platform_market_id": "KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-JCOR-P2",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?",
      "description": "John Cornyn, 0-5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "John Cornyn, 0-5%: Texas election authorities certify official results for the referenced statewide race, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff review of the certified margin of victory by May 26, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 0% and 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\n- **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by John Cornyn minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind John Cornyn if John Cornyn wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if John Cornyn loses.\n- **For raw votes**: the total votes received by John Cornyn minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind John Cornyn if John Cornyn wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if John Cornyn loses.\n- **For electoral votes**: the electoral votes received by John Cornyn minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if John Cornyn wins, or the electoral votes received by John Cornyn minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if John Cornyn does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If John Cornyn runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural John Cornyn will be summed.\n\nIf John Cornyn wins the election, the margin will be positive. If John Cornyn loses the election, the margin will be negative. If John Cornyn ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where John Cornyn is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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