{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
  "slug": "kxu3-26aug",
  "question": "Unemployment rate U-3, August 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.2,
      4.3
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.7,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.8,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 87
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 80
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 57
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 46
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.7,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.9,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 4
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment-rate",
    "us-economics",
    "labor-market",
    "august-2026",
    "macroeconomic-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U-3 unemployment rate for August 2026, sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report released in September 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, with 14 binary contracts spanning 3.7% to 5.0%. The implied distribution emerges from the spread between adjacent strikes, functioning like a discrete probability density across rate levels. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the BLS headline U-3 figure.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X6QMCP6722",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.46,
    "implied_probability": 0.46
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V19WKHSC00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T3.7",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in August?",
      "description": "Above 3.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.7%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.9,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-1E11BD9D57",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
        "u-3",
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        "us unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-56B2DH31R7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T3.8",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in August?",
      "description": "Above 3.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.8%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.94,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-F65764B887",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZBD1MTL6V7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T3.9",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in August?",
      "description": "Above 3.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.9%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.87,
      "implied_probability": 0.87,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 645.36,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-75CADD8941",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
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        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5DWH0ZQHP7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.0",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in August?",
      "description": "Above 4.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.0%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 193.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 2023.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-29D60CDDD3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GYHGMTJ260",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.1",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August?",
      "description": "Above 4.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.1%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 844.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-75CB0DE741",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8KY4N5HR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.2",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?",
      "description": "Above 4.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.2%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.57,
      "volume_total_usd": 702.8,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-C0DD6671BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X6QMCP6722",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.3",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August?",
      "description": "Above 4.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.3%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 366.21,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-084AA87BB5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5M47MP6SF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.4",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August?",
      "description": "Above 4.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.4%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.48,
      "volume_total_usd": 585.17,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-DD0D7444D6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DK7C2WJJJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.5",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in August?",
      "description": "Above 4.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.5%: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August 2026 employment situation report, released in September 2026, determines whether the unemployment rate meets the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-04T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.5% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.41,
      "volume_total_usd": 63.58,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-82E064E401",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DLB24206X2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.6",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in August?",
      "description": "Above 4.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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