{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
  "slug": "kxu3-26jul",
  "question": "The unemployment rate (U-3) in July",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
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      4.3
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.7,
        "prob": 98
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      {
        "threshold": 3.8,
        "prob": 98
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      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 97
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      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 94
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        "prob": 83
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        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 57
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        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 13
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      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 4
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      {
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        "prob": 2
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        "prob": 1
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      {
        "threshold": 4.9,
        "prob": 1
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      {
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  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment",
    "u-3-rate",
    "labor-economics",
    "2026",
    "monthly-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U.S. U-3 unemployment rate for July 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report is the authoritative source. Kalshi structures fourteen binary strike thresholds from 3.7% to 5.0%, each resolved by Kalshi staff determination. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the July 2026 rate level.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZW7ZG8QLY5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.16,
    "implied_probability": 0.16
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T3.7",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?",
      "description": "Above 3.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.7%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.98,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-BBC047089E",
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      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
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        "us unemployment rate",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R74DWFDCK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T3.8",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?",
      "description": "Above 3.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.8%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "threshold": 3.8,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8RLQD3BL04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T3.9",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?",
      "description": "Above 3.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.9%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.97,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-F957DAE262",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F63LZLFQ81",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T4.0",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?",
      "description": "Above 4.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.0%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 4218.693499999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-F2F34F0713",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8HHMFPTX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T4.1",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?",
      "description": "Above 4.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.1%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 42.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 4698.0822,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-C79D6057DD",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NGKSXJT8Q4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T4.2",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July?",
      "description": "Above 4.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.2%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.6,
      "implied_probability": 0.6,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.2,
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T4.3",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in July?",
      "description": "Above 4.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.3%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "last_price": 0.16,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 318.74240000000003,
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      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F32ADFD61",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T4.4",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in July?",
      "description": "Above 4.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.4%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.04,
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    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUL-T4.5",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in July?",
      "description": "Above 4.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.5%: The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, resolves this market by November 6, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.5% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
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    {
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