{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
  "slug": "kxu3-26jun",
  "question": "Unemployment rate U-3, June 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.1,
      4.2
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.7,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-labor-market",
    "unemployment-rate",
    "economic-indicator",
    "june-2026",
    "monthly-employment"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U-3 unemployment rate for June 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kalshi structures the event as ten discrete strike thresholds, from 3.9% to 4.8%, each pricing the probability the rate exceeds that level. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes functions as a synthetic probability distribution over the June print. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against the BLS Employment Situation report released in July 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1KDMWNFSM2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G1TBL7THC6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T3.9",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in June?",
      "description": "Above 3.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.9%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2044.38,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-F491B7DEAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LR7LLQQBQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.0",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 136.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 3832.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-406F245326",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NZQCDP6PK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.1",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.1%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 377.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 5697.73,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-484E754629",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1KDMWNFSM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.2",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.2%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 256.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 3495.42,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-D83518FDCC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H1LW982YV5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.3",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.3%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.96,
      "volume_total_usd": 604.46,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-2EE3B3C2BF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JBNS87NXR6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.4",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.4%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.31,
      "volume_total_usd": 159.53,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-2903E0075C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YJFWKR7R38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.5",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.5% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.15,
      "volume_total_usd": 18.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-F9B52579C5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P29FG3J7W2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.6",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.6%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.6% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25.56,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-B28687B1A5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-indicator",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "us-labor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HHDTM4GPY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.7",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in June?",
      "description": "Above 4.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.7%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for June 2026, released in July 2026, determines whether the U-3 unemployment rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-02T12:29:00Z",
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