{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
  "slug": "kxu3-26may",
  "question": "Unemployment rate (U-3), May 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.2,
      4.3
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.7,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment-rate",
    "us-economics",
    "labor-market",
    "may-2026",
    "macroeconomic-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [
    "cpi",
    "jobs",
    "gdp",
    "fomc"
  ],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026, sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. Kalshi structures the event as a strike-threshold ladder, with ten binary contracts spanning 3.9% to 4.8%. Implied probability differences between adjacent strikes reveal market consensus around the most likely rate level. Resolution occurs via Kalshi staff determination on June 5, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-80GFNGWPZ7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J92PY1BXG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T3.9",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in May?",
      "description": "Above 3.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 706.86,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-0C2DE45C7F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may-2026",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-96YP5VX1Q7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.0",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 1,
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      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-27A1E4B61E",
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        "unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLJX7Q41L6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.1",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 1,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 18762,
      "volume_total_usd": 76612.51,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0D38395BF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may-2026",
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        "unemployment",
        "unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYKD37VKW6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.2",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1767.78,
      "volume_total_usd": 19782.59,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-8EBC613DE6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may-2026",
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        "unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-80GFNGWPZ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.3",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": null,
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 599.83,
      "volume_total_usd": 7014.67,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-5BC5B8E688",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "may-2026",
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        "unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Y93SZPXP8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.4",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 56.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 2122.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-328400E93D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "unemployment rate"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQP70SHHC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.5",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.5% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-0BDA5D7430",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G3G2WL2ST9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.6",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.6% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-102A363AA8",
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      "tags": [
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        "unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7LYJSDVTR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.7",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026 in its Employment Situation report.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.7% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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        "caps": [],
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      },
      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 196.56,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-3C1AC10793",
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      "tags": [
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        "unemployment",
        "unemployment rate"
      ],
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G51V7SJTZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26MAY-T4.8",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in May?",
      "description": "Above 4.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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}