{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
  "slug": "kxu3-26oct",
  "question": "Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.2,
      4.3
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3.7,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.8,
        "prob": 94
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 83
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 71
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 68
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 55
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 47
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 33
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 26
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 20
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.7,
        "prob": 12
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.9,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment",
    "us-labor-market",
    "economic-indicator",
    "october-2026",
    "macro-economics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November 2026 Employment Situation report. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of 14 binary strike thresholds, ranging from 3.7% to 5.0%, each resolved by Kalshi staff determination. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes encodes a full market-implied distribution of the October rate level. Resolution is set for February 5, 2027, allowing for any BLS data revision after initial release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JMGV68N5J0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.21,
    "implied_probability": 0.21,
    "as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2F71L55K20",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T3.7",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in October?",
      "description": "Above 3.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.7%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1847.0079,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-16D3FA2DD7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "october",
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        "unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NP209969S0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T3.8",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October?",
      "description": "Above 3.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.8%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
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      "last_price": 0.87,
      "implied_probability": 0.87,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 51.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 756.03,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-753F784A5A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LZRFSJYGR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T3.9",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October?",
      "description": "Above 3.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.9%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2295.3696,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-3EB2A83F81",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TSRBCZ027",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.0",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October?",
      "description": "Above 4.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1849.5554,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-FB8CE338F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "october",
        "u-3",
        "unemployment",
        "unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-13YZ3HMS60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.1",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October?",
      "description": "Above 4.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
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      "last_price": 0.61,
      "implied_probability": 0.61,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.05,
      "volume_total_usd": 969.1496999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-DCD62EBC02",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "october",
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        "unemployment rate"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5YQ1JHZMB7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.2",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October?",
      "description": "Above 4.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 21.45,
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      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-1FD7CC570A",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JMGV68N5J0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.3",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October?",
      "description": "Above 4.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-7B340B1222",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "october",
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        "unemployment",
        "unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F6PPW9PD66",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.4",
      "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October?",
      "description": "Above 4.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, released in the November employment situation report, resolves whether the rate exceeded 4.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-06T13:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-A2BA2F7BD4",
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        "unemployment",
        "unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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