{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
  "slug": "kxu3max-27",
  "question": "Unemployment rate maximum, before January 2027",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 23
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 9,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 17,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment",
    "labor-market",
    "economic-indicators",
    "us-macro",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the U.S. unemployment rate breaches discrete strike thresholds before 2027. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary contracts, each asking whether the rate exceeds a specific level from 5% to 20%. The implied probability surface across strikes functions as a synthetic CDF of the unemployment rate peak. The authoritative source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release, with settlement by Kalshi staff determination.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-S85VMS2MK4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S85VMS2MK4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-5",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 132.3476,
      "volume_total_usd": 35989.0014,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-CA53D5B74B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4W5RG9YF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-6",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 6%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.029,
      "implied_probability": 0.029,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.14500000000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 5891.605780000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-2036CACE5C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FQQMWGX1Y5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-7",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 7%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 931.2736,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": "CMX-BBF06CF684",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-62DRWH2QP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-8",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 8%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 8%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 774.5584,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-A3C9A84043",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WHLY1VYJP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-9",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 9%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 9%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1819.7110000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": "CMX-C19F9189F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-69YJX2DXQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-10",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 10%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 646.7280000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-E5DD5634DD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SDQY0WTGW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-12",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 12%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 12%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.049,
      "implied_probability": 0.049,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 155.82,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-BD8496B1E7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4X9L9T7X97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-15",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 15%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 15%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.044,
      "implied_probability": 0.044,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 163.108,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": "CMX-7E32A16DCA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R9Z0LF0M13",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-17",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 17%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 17%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 17%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 128.7492,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 17,
      "question_id": "CMX-EFC98BB28C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SWH7W29F60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-20",
      "question": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
      "description": "Above 20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 20%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, as reported in its Employment Situation news release, resolves this market by March 9, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-08T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 20%, the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 126.87207000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-094C350C7A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "unemployment",
        "us unemployment rate",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}