{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-59V517G2P0",
  "slug": "kxual-26julpax",
  "question": "United Airlines passengers, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      47500000,
      48000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 45000000,
        "prob": 89
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      {
        "threshold": 45500000,
        "prob": 89
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      {
        "threshold": 46000000,
        "prob": 88
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      {
        "threshold": 46500000,
        "prob": 82
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      {
        "threshold": 47000000,
        "prob": 83
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      {
        "threshold": 47500000,
        "prob": 67
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      {
        "threshold": 48000000,
        "prob": 42
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      {
        "threshold": 48500000,
        "prob": 13
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  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "united-airlines",
    "passenger-volume",
    "q2-2026",
    "airline-financials",
    "travel-demand"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track United Airlines Holdings Q2 2026 total passenger count against eight discrete strike thresholds. Kalshi structures each threshold as an independent binary, spanning 45 million to 48.5 million in 500,000-passenger increments. Together they imply a probability distribution over the likely passenger count range. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination, sourced from United's official Q2 2026 quarterly earnings release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7314JXPFW0",
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    "implied_probability": 0.72
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KGL857ZTQ6",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUAL-26JULPAX-45000000.0",
      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 45 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 45 million: The named airline's Q2 2026 passenger count, as reported in its quarterly earnings release and verified by Kalshi staff determination, resolves by August 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T20:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 45000000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-AEA0730485",
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      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?",
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      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46 million passengers in Q2 2026?",
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      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?",
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}