{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XL3H4QDNB2",
  "slug": "kxuala-28janpax",
  "question": "United Airlines passenger count, January 2028",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      186000000,
      188000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 178000000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 180000000,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 182000000,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 184000000,
        "prob": 83
      },
      {
        "threshold": 186000000,
        "prob": 56
      },
      {
        "threshold": 188000000,
        "prob": 38
      },
      {
        "threshold": 190000000,
        "prob": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "united-airlines",
    "passenger-traffic",
    "aviation-industry",
    "annual-metrics",
    "2026-operations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track United Airlines Holdings Inc. total passengers flown in full-year 2026. Kalshi structures seven binary strike thresholds from 178 million to 190 million, each asking whether reported volume exceeds a fixed level. Together they imply a probability distribution over United's 2026 passenger count range. Kalshi staff determination draws on Fiscal.ai as the data source for United's reported figures.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BWSJNTK335",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.37,
    "implied_probability": 0.37
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0Y2KN85MK7",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 178 million passengers flown in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 178 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 178 million: The listed company's passenger count in 2026 resolves via Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 178000000 passengers flown in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "C",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 178000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1A2273B72E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "airline",
        "passengers",
        "united",
        "united airlines passengers"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SQT4TGSC10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XL3H4QDNB2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUALA-28JANPAX-180000000",
      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 180 million passengers flown in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 180 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 180 million: The listed company's passenger count in 2026 resolves via Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 180000000 passengers flown in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G28C4PY1L8",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUALA-28JANPAX-182000000",
      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 182 million passengers flown in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 182 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 182000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2A25DC2B67",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPT5HMQ3D8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XL3H4QDNB2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUALA-28JANPAX-184000000",
      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 184 million passengers flown in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 184 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 184 million: The listed company's passenger count in 2026 resolves via Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
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      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 184000000 passengers flown in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "threshold": 184000000,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
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      ],
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WV5NZNHH42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XL3H4QDNB2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUALA-28JANPAX-186000000",
      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 186 million passengers flown in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 186 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 186 million: The listed company's passenger count in 2026 resolves via Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 186000000 passengers flown in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 188 million passengers flown in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 188 million",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 188 million: The listed company's passenger count in 2026 resolves via Kalshi staff determination using Fiscal.ai data, by March 31, 2028.",
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      "question": "Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 190 million passengers flown in 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 190000000 passengers flown in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-C414274788",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XL3H4QDNB2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}