{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C18YMDMKD8",
  "slug": "kxue-chn26jul",
  "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      5.1,
      5.2
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 99
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      {
        "threshold": 4.7,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.9,
        "prob": 98
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        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 77
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      {
        "threshold": 5.1,
        "prob": 63
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      {
        "threshold": 5.2,
        "prob": 49
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      {
        "threshold": 5.3,
        "prob": 6
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      {
        "threshold": 5.4,
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      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 0
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      {
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  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "china-economics",
    "unemployment-rate",
    "labor-statistics",
    "2026",
    "monthly-data"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track China's official urban surveyed unemployment rate for July 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eleven ascending strike thresholds, from 4.6% to 5.6%, each pricing the probability the rate exceeds that level. The implied distribution across strikes reveals where consensus locates the modal outcome. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1WQMYX87H6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y7BDBQMXS1",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUE-CHN26JUL-4.6",
      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.6%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T01:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-24T01:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the China unemployment rate is above 4.6% for July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-04E767AC51",
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        "china",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7LMM891988",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUE-CHN26JUL-4.7",
      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4.7%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.7%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-08-24T01:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the China unemployment rate is above 4.7% for July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4.8%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.8%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XZQ8FMVFR2",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUE-CHN26JUL-4.9",
      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4.9%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.9%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the China unemployment rate is above 4.9% for July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7V8NNQTR34",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUE-CHN26JUL-5.0",
      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.0%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the China unemployment rate is above 5.0% for July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "source": "Trading Economics",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZZR9SPRZM9",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUE-CHN26JUL-5.1",
      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5.1%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.1%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUE-CHN26JUL-5.2",
      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.2%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
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    {
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      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
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      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-5F2F9D8B29",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china unemployment rate",
        "macroeconomic",
        "unemployment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QYRVJQD8V4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C18YMDMKD8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUE-CHN26JUL-5.6",
      "question": "China unemployment rate in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 5.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.6%: China's monthly unemployment rate as published by Trading Economics by August 24, 2026, 01:55 UTC, determines whether the outcome resolves Yes or No.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-17T01:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-24T01:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the China unemployment rate is above 5.6% for July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Trading Economics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://tradingeconomics.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Trading Economics",
            "url": "https://tradingeconomics.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Trading Economics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.55,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-F34B412927",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china unemployment rate",
        "macroeconomic",
        "unemployment"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C18YMDMKD8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}