{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
  "slug": "kxust10am-26jul31",
  "question": "Will the 10-year US Treasury yield be above 4% on July 31, 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "us-treasury",
    "yield-tracking",
    "fixed-income",
    "economic-indicator",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark yield on July 31, 2026. Kalshi structures coverage as nine binary strike thresholds, spanning 4.29% to 4.69% in 5-basis-point increments. The spread of active strikes functions as an implied yield distribution, not a single directional bet. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data published August 1, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NGWLN4JJ27",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.84,
    "implied_probability": 0.84
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z418CH33Q7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.29",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.3% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.3% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 458.37,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.29,
      "question_id": "CMX-2EF066BF4A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DT6KT62JF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.34",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.35% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.35% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 565.29,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.34,
      "question_id": "CMX-CCCD74D35B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2G0T0F6921",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.39",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.4% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.4% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 300.39000000000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.39,
      "question_id": "CMX-76CAAE12E2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W171B70WQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.44",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.45% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.45% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 538.5264999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.44,
      "question_id": "CMX-09188CFEC3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W8WX3NVCQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.49",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.5% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.5% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 518.9790999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.49,
      "question_id": "CMX-1B93FB0057",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H3GBWK6CD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.54",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.55% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.55% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1640.8874999999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.54,
      "question_id": "CMX-0D41207736",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NGWLN4JJ27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.59",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.6% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.6% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": 84,
      "volume_total_usd": 2306.2367999999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.59,
      "question_id": "CMX-8A3DECB89E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CKKPMFF4S9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.64",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.65% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.65% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 61.36,
      "volume_total_usd": 788.5488,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.64,
      "question_id": "CMX-08EC7A75A1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y2G7XSTWF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.69",
      "question": "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.7% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.7% or above: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data on August 1, 2026 determines whether the referenced Treasury security's yield meets the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
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