{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
  "slug": "kxust30am-26jul31",
  "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "us-treasury",
    "yield-rates",
    "fixed-income",
    "economic-indicator",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026. Kalshi structures coverage as eight sequential strike thresholds, from 4.79% to 5.19%. Each binary resolves via Kalshi staff determination against the U.S. Department of the Treasury's published daily yield. Together the strikes form an implied distribution of the yield level at close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-53MKBBD1D9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53MKBBD1D9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T4.79",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.8% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.8% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4613.499000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.79,
      "question_id": "CMX-B706CD31C3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YWTGQS8P55",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T4.84",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.85% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.85% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.84% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 209.25,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.84,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE1F67B58F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4R6S0N5170",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T4.89",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.9% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.9% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1245.58,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.89,
      "question_id": "CMX-304405B4A2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-36S3ZWKBC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T4.94",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.95% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.95% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.94% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1079.26,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.94,
      "question_id": "CMX-812884BD2B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CQL9JMWGF9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T4.99",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "5% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "5% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1292.94,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9C8235A20D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-83XQGG0RW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T5.04",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "5.05% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "5.05% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.04% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 107.10000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 3248.037,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.04,
      "question_id": "CMX-108D549436",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SY35VGG8W0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T5.09",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "5.1% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "5.1% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 121.9764,
      "volume_total_usd": 2663.0915999999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.09,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5C84E72EC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JY20NGZJX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T5.14",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "5.15% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "5.15% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.14% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 261.39520000000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 1538.1344000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.14,
      "question_id": "CMX-969EE74EB8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PCPGMDK9T9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30AM-26JUL31-T5.19",
      "question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "5.2% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "5.2% or above: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves the market by August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-02T05:05:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.19% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
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