{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KSGKL94160",
  "slug": "kxust30m-26jun30",
  "question": "30-year US Treasury yield month-end, June 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      4.95
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4.95,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.05,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.1,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.15,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.2,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.25,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.3,
        "prob": 0
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    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-treasuries",
    "yield-markets",
    "economic-indicators",
    "month-end-snapshot",
    "fixed-income"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 30-year US Treasury yield at June 30, 2026 month-end. Kalshi structures the event as eight discrete strike thresholds, from 4.95% to 5.30%, each pricing a binary above/below outcome. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes constructs a synthetic yield distribution for the long end. The US Department of the Treasury is the authoritative source; Kalshi staff determine resolution by July 7, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7VG056BXN6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7VG056BXN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KSGKL94160",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30M-26JUN30-T4.95",
      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%?",
      "description": "Above 4.95%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.95%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 4.95%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "US Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 4047,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.95,
      "question_id": "CMX-937623764D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "yield"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SVR561D6Q5",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.00",
      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.00%?",
      "description": "Above 5.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.00%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 5.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "US Department of the Treasury",
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        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-05CB5875C4",
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      "tags": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2CH8ZRSQ49",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KSGKL94160",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.05",
      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.05%?",
      "description": "Above 5.05%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.05%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 5.05%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "volume_total_usd": 511.27,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-120CD297C2",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MR503HNKL0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KSGKL94160",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.10",
      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.10%?",
      "description": "Above 5.10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.10%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 5.10%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 13.26,
      "volume_total_usd": 218.82,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-E216FAAC28",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30y us treasury",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MNM6T9SGJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KSGKL94160",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.15",
      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.15%?",
      "description": "Above 5.15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.15%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 5.15%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-AA1975FC6A",
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.20",
      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.20%?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.20%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 5.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-51EE1A858D",
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.25",
      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.25%?",
      "description": "Above 5.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.25%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 5.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-BB01A5025C",
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      "question": "Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.30%?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5.30%: The US Department of the Treasury's reported month-end 30-year yield, determined by Kalshi staff by July 7, 2026, resolves whether the referenced outcome occurred.",
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    {
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T22:08:11.9304Z",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T22:08:11.9304Z",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MR503HNKL0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T22:08:11.9304Z",
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