{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
  "slug": "kxust5am-26jul31",
  "question": "5-year US Treasury yield, July 31, 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.44,
      4.49
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.04,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.09,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.14,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.19,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.24,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.29,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.34,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.39,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.44,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.49,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.54,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.59,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.64,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.69,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.74,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.79,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.84,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.89,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "us-treasury",
    "yield-rates",
    "fixed-income",
    "economic-indicator",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026. Kalshi structures 19 binary strike thresholds spanning 3.99% to 4.89%, each pricing whether the yield closes above a discrete level. Together they imply a continuous probability distribution over the yield range. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve publication.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-839TZM85N7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z0FTK8VHK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T3.99",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 3.99% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1691.69,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HBQY0NHV96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.04",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.05% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.05% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 47.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 1281.63,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.04,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q0ZB9TFYR1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.09",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.1% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.1% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.09% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 45,
      "volume_total_usd": 756.01,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.09,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YH23NWWYZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.14",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.15% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.15% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.95,
      "volume_total_usd": 337.25,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.14,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4N8WL4H1P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.19",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.2% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.2% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 258.39,
      "volume_total_usd": 846.69,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.19,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-476ZPF8G47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.24",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.25% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.25% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 150.06,
      "volume_total_usd": 364.08,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.24,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4MHD5V0N5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.29",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.3% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.3% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.96,
      "volume_total_usd": 1306.73,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.29,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-46B7V346N6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.34",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.35% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.35% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 91,
      "volume_total_usd": 813.18,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.34,
      "question_id": null,
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        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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            "under_min_maturity"
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5R7CRQDQ50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.39",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.4% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.4% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
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      "volume_total_usd": 100.5,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.39,
      "question_id": null,
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        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
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    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.44",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.45% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.45% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 22.91,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.44,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
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        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
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          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-839TZM85N7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.49",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.5% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.5% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "caps": [],
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      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0.65,
      "volume_total_usd": 52.98,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.49,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
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        "treasuries",
        "yields"
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KG95794BL3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.54",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.55% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.55% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.45,
      "volume_total_usd": 28.9,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.54,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
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        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7YCFR7QZX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.59",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.6% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.6% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8,
      "volume_total_usd": 8.4,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.59,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
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          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9XJDV65XW7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.64",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.65% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.65% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.4,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.64,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFJLVCJNG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.69",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.7% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.7% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.12,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.69,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "5y us treasury",
        "fixed-income",
        "treasuries",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0DFZ6LNGJ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XGVPFQNP5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUST5AM-26JUL31-T4.74",
      "question": "Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "4.75% or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4.75% or above: The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield on July 31, 2026, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve data, determines the outcome on August 2, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T19:30:00Z",
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