{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
  "slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
  "question": "Will the UST par yield curve (2-year) be at par at the end of Q3 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-treasury-yields",
    "fixed-income",
    "q3-2026",
    "yield-curve",
    "economic-indicators"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the average UST par yield curve 2-year rate over Q3 2026. Kalshi structures the event as 16 discrete binary strike thresholds, ranging from 3.20% to 4.70%. Together, the strikes imply a probability distribution over the Q3 2026 average 2-year yield level. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using Federal Reserve Board of Governors published par yield curve data, settled by October 7, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JLYNJ0W9V1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.92,
    "implied_probability": 0.92
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSKS1JP9S9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.20",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.20%?",
      "description": "Above 3.20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.20%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 744.04,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-5EDE3ECAA0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZS2B23MS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.30",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.30%?",
      "description": "Above 3.30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.30%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.30%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 183.15,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-678FD2E80D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G7S6QQX272",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.40",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.40%?",
      "description": "Above 3.40%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.40%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 101.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-09B7E4ACD3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8034YCTV39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.50",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.50%?",
      "description": "Above 3.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 52.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-233606D1EB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CTSF3805K6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.60",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.60%?",
      "description": "Above 3.60%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.60%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.60%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 665.9499999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-D1283CE4D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8RZHZ4X435",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.70",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.70%?",
      "description": "Above 3.70%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.70%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.70%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 106.7097,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-2E57516467",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SH13MK0KC7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.80",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.80%?",
      "description": "Above 3.80%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.80%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.80%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 107.208,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0116D35DC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L2TL5Z37J4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.90",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.90%?",
      "description": "Above 3.90%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.90%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 665.5415,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-BCE92F2928",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fixed-income",
        "treasury",
        "year ust par",
        "yields"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CCQTQ3J6Q8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.00",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.00%?",
      "description": "Above 4.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00%: Kalshi staff determination of the average UST Par Yield Curve 2-year rate during Q3 2026, based on Federal Reserve Board of Governors data, resolves by October 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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