{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
  "slug": "kxustyld-30y26jun30",
  "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-treasury-yields",
    "yield-curve",
    "q2-2026",
    "macroeconomic-indicators",
    "fixed-income"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U.S. Treasury 30-year par yield curve rate as of June 30, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as 16 discrete strike thresholds, from 4.00% to 5.50% in 10-basis-point increments. Taken together, the cumulative \"yes\" probabilities imply a market-consensus distribution over the 30-year rate level at quarter-end. The authoritative source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, with settlement via Kalshi staff determination on or around July 7, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-14RV1SLWP5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.97,
    "implied_probability": 0.97
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-14RV1SLWP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.00",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?",
      "description": "Above 4.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1177.58,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-5281444159",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30-year",
        "treasury",
        "ust",
        "ust 30 year",
        "yield curve"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W1J55W8X30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.10",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.10%?",
      "description": "Above 4.10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.10%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.10%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 486.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-9A3390697B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30-year",
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        "ust 30 year",
        "yield curve"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PRF8VHGN22",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.20",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.20%?",
      "description": "Above 4.20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.20%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 582.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-B4C38A309C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "yield curve"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KDZQ776QW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.30",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.30%?",
      "description": "Above 4.30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.30%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.30%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 660.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-C795B9C545",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "30-year",
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        "ust",
        "ust 30 year",
        "yield curve"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KF6KK09CJ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.40",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%?",
      "description": "Above 4.40%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.40%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.97,
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      "volume_total_usd": 851.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-D22E090DA3",
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      "tags": [
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        "yield curve"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PM58VTZT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.50",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.50%?",
      "description": "Above 4.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.50%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-B18C26E74A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "ust 30 year",
        "yield curve"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1S93T8ZJG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.60",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?",
      "description": "Above 4.60%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.60%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.60%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 179.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-70236394C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "treasury",
        "ust",
        "ust 30 year",
        "yield curve"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-23L9K1HQY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.70",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.70%?",
      "description": "Above 4.70%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.70%: The U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve 30-year rate for Q2 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, resolves on July 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.70%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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        "treasury",
        "ust",
        "ust 30 year",
        "yield curve"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}