{
  "_notice": {
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5SYG6JWJ7",
  "slug": "kxustyld-5y26jun30",
  "question": "UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
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      4.2
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    "strikes": [
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        "prob": 100
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        "prob": 100
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      {
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      {
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      {
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        "prob": 100
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  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-treasury-yields",
    "yield-curve",
    "q2-2026",
    "fixed-income",
    "interest-rates"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the average U.S. Treasury par yield curve 5-year rate over Q2 2026. Kalshi structures the event as 16 binary strike thresholds spanning 3.20% to 4.70%. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination against the quarter's average rate. The authoritative source is the Federal Reserve Board of Governors par yield curve data, published on the H.15 statistical release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-530QQH2J83",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PKSQ5DF3Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5SYG6JWJ7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-5Y26JUN30-T3.20",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.20%?",
      "description": "Above 3.20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.20%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 1653.3,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 3.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-554B2341EA",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KKSG5WLBH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5SYG6JWJ7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-5Y26JUN30-T3.30",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.30%?",
      "description": "Above 3.30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.30%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.30%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 1,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2.94,
      "volume_total_usd": 2275.56,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 3.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-90F734E02A",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LV8G36T6Y5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5SYG6JWJ7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-5Y26JUN30-T3.40",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.40%?",
      "description": "Above 3.40%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.40%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-1901AE15C2",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LBY74LPD10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5SYG6JWJ7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-5Y26JUN30-T3.50",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.50%?",
      "description": "Above 3.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
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    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-5Y26JUN30-T3.60",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?",
      "description": "Above 3.60%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.60%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.60%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5SYG6JWJ7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-5Y26JUN30-T3.70",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?",
      "description": "Above 3.70%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.70%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.70%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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      "threshold": 3.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-00622C456E",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-5Y26JUN30-T3.80",
      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?",
      "description": "Above 3.80%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.80%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.80%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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      "question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.90%?",
      "description": "Above 3.90%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.90%: Kalshi staff determines outcome using the average UST Par Yield Curve 5-year rate for Q2 2026 from official Treasury data, resolved by July 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T19:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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