{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
  "slug": "kxvancouvermayor-26oct17",
  "question": "Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "vancouver-politics",
    "canadian-elections",
    "municipal-governance",
    "2026-election",
    "political-leadership"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election. Kalshi lists seven candidate-specific binary contracts: Ken Sim, Kareem Allam, Rebecca Bligh, Pete Fry, John Coupar, Kirk LaPointe, and Sean Orr. Each contract is structurally identical, pricing only whether one named candidate wins. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority, expected by October 17, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2FPVHB6GK4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.28,
    "implied_probability": 0.28
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2FPVHB6GK4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-KSIM",
      "question": "Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
      "description": "Ken Sim",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Sim: The named candidate's victory resolves according to official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority by October 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Sim wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.28,
      "implied_probability": 0.28,
      "volume_24h_usd": 231.56000000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 4140.976000000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "canada",
        "ken sim",
        "mayor",
        "vancouver"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FZRTBT4YL7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-KALL",
      "question": "Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
      "description": "Kareem Allam",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kareem Allam: The named candidate's victory resolves according to official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority by October 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kareem Allam wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "volume_24h_usd": 442.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 2302.6465,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "canada",
        "kareem allam",
        "mayor",
        "vancouver"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8MLMC1PN30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-RBLI",
      "question": "Will Rebecca Bligh win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
      "description": "Rebecca Bligh",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Rebecca Bligh: The named candidate's victory resolves according to official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority by October 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Rebecca Bligh wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.16,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "canada",
        "mayor",
        "rebecca bligh",
        "vancouver"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T10JNPGCJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-PFRY",
      "question": "Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
      "description": "Pete Fry",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pete Fry: The named candidate's victory resolves according to official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority by October 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pete Fry wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31.46,
      "volume_total_usd": 784.6800000000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "canada",
        "mayor",
        "pete fry",
        "vancouver"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-79T9G1PF65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-JCOU",
      "question": "Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
      "description": "John Coupar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "John Coupar: The named candidate's victory resolves according to official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority by October 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If John Coupar wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 328.04,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "canada",
        "john coupar",
        "mayor",
        "vancouver"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3ZN4Y8JPY0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-KLAP",
      "question": "Will Kirk LaPointe win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
      "description": "Kirk LaPointe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kirk LaPointe: The named candidate's victory resolves according to official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority by October 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Kirk LaPointe wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 37.08,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "canada",
        "kirk lapointe",
        "mayor",
        "vancouver"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZPK9BPKTC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-SORR",
      "question": "Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?",
      "description": "Sean Orr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Sean Orr: The named candidate's victory resolves according to official results certified by Vancouver's electoral authority by October 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sean Orr wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.  \n\nThe market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.  If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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