{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
  "slug": "kxvei4-26dec31",
  "question": "Will a major volcano eruption occur in 2026?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "volcanic-activity",
    "natural-disasters",
    "vei-index",
    "geophysical-events",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of VEI-4 or greater volcanic eruptions globally in 2026. The three Kalshi contracts are structured as cumulative thresholds: at least one, at least two, and at least three qualifying events. Pricing across the tier ladder implies market-implied probabilities for each incremental eruption. All three resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Volcanic Explosivity Index standard, with settlement closing June 29, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CV4F6SKNT6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.2,
    "implied_probability": 0.2,
    "as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CV4F6SKNT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVEI4-26DEC31-A1",
      "question": "Will there be at least 1 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1: Kalshi staff determination of whether at least one volcanic eruption meeting the specified Volcanic Explosivity Index threshold occurred worldwide during 2026, resolved by June 29, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the U",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "url": null,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 718.944,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
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        "vei4",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TDBMYYVT7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVEI4-26DEC31-A2",
      "question": "Will there be at least 2 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 2: Kalshi staff determination of whether at least one volcanic eruption meeting the specified Volcanic Explosivity Index threshold occurred worldwide during 2026, resolved by June 29, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the U",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 508.7826,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVEI4-26DEC31-A3",
      "question": "Will there be at least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3: Kalshi staff determination of whether at least one volcanic eruption meeting the specified Volcanic Explosivity Index threshold occurred worldwide during 2026, resolved by June 29, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the U",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T10:02:26.125Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1643.26,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "eruption",
        "natural-disaster",
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        {
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          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}