{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
  "slug": "kxvei4-26dec31",
  "question": "Will a major volcano eruption occur in 2026?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "volcanic-activity",
    "natural-disasters",
    "vei-index",
    "geophysical-events",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of VEI4 or greater volcanic eruptions globally during calendar year 2026. The three Kalshi contracts are structured as cumulative strike thresholds: at least 1, at least 2, and at least 3 events. Each higher-count contract is a strict subset of the prior, creating an implied probability ladder. Kalshi staff will determine resolution by June 29, 2027 using Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program records as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CZ8P2C9ZS6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.41,
    "implied_probability": 0.41
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CV4F6SKNT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVEI4-26DEC31-A1",
      "question": "Will there be at least 1 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 1",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 1: Kalshi staff determination by June 29, 2027 whether the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program recorded at least the specified number of volcanic eruptions at the stated explosivity index during the calendar year in question.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the U",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "GVP-attributed start",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "GVP",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.72,
      "implied_probability": 0.72,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7.7616,
      "volume_total_usd": 2319.3648,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "eruption",
        "natural-disaster",
        "vei4",
        "vei4 eruptions worldwide",
        "volcano"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TDBMYYVT7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVEI4-26DEC31-A2",
      "question": "Will there be at least 2 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 2: Kalshi staff determination by June 29, 2027 whether the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program recorded at least the specified number of volcanic eruptions at the stated explosivity index during the calendar year in question.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the U",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 643.5296,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "vei4 eruptions worldwide",
        "volcano"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CZ8P2C9ZS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVEI4-26DEC31-A3",
      "question": "Will there be at least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?",
      "description": "At least 3",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 3: Kalshi staff determination by June 29, 2027 whether the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program recorded at least the specified number of volcanic eruptions at the stated explosivity index during the calendar year in question.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-29T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2678.8662,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "eruption",
        "natural-disaster",
        "vei4",
        "vei4 eruptions worldwide",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}