{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
  "slug": "kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31",
  "question": "Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "venezuela-leadership",
    "political-succession",
    "heads-of-state",
    "2026",
    "latin-america"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track who holds the head-of-state role in Venezuela as of December 31, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as 18 parallel binary contracts, each naming a distinct candidate. All contracts resolve via Kalshi staff determination on December 31, 2026. The breadth of named candidates reflects genuine uncertainty over whether Maduro, González Urrutia, or another figure holds power at year-end.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TYKKGCYRT0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.78,
    "implied_probability": 0.78
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D6XXBQ1K37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-EGON",
      "question": "Will Edmundo González Urrutia be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Edmundo González",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Edmundo González: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Edmundo González Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nEdmundo González Urrutia has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nEdmundo González Urrutia is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nEdmundo González Urrutia is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.042,
      "implied_probability": 0.042,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.063019999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 17164.00728,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "edmundo gonz lez",
        "opposition",
        "politician",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2FGFCNN3D8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MCM",
      "question": "Will María Corina Machado be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "María Corina Machado",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "María Corina Machado: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If María Corina Machado officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nMaría Corina Machado has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nMaría Corina Machado is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nMaría Corina Machado is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.031,
      "implied_probability": 0.031,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.76517,
      "volume_total_usd": 33678.69915,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mar corina machado",
        "opposition",
        "politician",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C4JZYRZD83",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DJT",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Donald Trump: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nDonald Trump has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nDonald Trump is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nDonald Trump is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 1.44,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
        "donald trump",
        "politician",
        "usa"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-20F33ZV7M3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DROD",
      "question": "Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Delcy Rodríguez",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Delcy Rodríguez: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Delcy Rodríguez officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nDelcy Rodríguez has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nDelcy Rodríguez is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nDelcy Rodríguez is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
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        "government",
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        "venezuela"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFS4KGXMS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-JROD",
      "question": "Will Jorge Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Jorge Rodríguez",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jorge Rodríguez: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Jorge Rodríguez officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nJorge Rodríguez has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nJorge Rodríguez is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nJorge Rodríguez is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
        "government",
        "jorge rodr guez",
        "politician",
        "venezuela"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TYKKGCYRT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-NMAD",
      "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Nicolás Maduro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Nicolás Maduro: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nNicolás Maduro has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nNicolás Maduro is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nNicolás Maduro is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 851.8224,
      "volume_total_usd": 593623.0716,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "incumbent",
        "nicol maduro",
        "politician",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R9M23HPBL0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-VLOP",
      "question": "Will Vladimir Padrino López be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Vladimir Padrino López",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Vladimir Padrino López: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Vladimir Padrino López officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nVladimir Padrino López has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nVladimir Padrino López is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nVladimir Padrino López is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1547.22955,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "government",
        "military",
        "venezuela",
        "vladimir padrino pez"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X7RL2XBMM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-EPET",
      "question": "Will Evan Pettus be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Evan Pettus",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Evan Pettus: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Evan Pettus officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nEvan Pettus has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nEvan Pettus is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nEvan Pettus is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1094.442,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "evan pettus",
        "government",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JKX964K91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-FDON",
      "question": "Will Frank Donovan be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Frank Donovan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Frank Donovan: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Frank Donovan officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nFrank Donovan has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nFrank Donovan is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nFrank Donovan is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 928.5652,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "frank donovan",
        "government",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PH2W8WDMT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DCAI",
      "question": "Will Dan Caine be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Dan Caine",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Dan Caine: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Dan Caine officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nDan Caine has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nDan Caine is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nDan Caine is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 939.74,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dan caine",
        "government",
        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M9M1SNR7Y1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MRUB",
      "question": "Will Marco Rubio be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Marco Rubio",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Marco Rubio: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Marco Rubio officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nMarco Rubio has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nMarco Rubio is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nMarco Rubio is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.024,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7959.50544,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "marco rubio",
        "politician",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JGJJSSF812",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-PHEG",
      "question": "Will Pete Hegseth be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Pete Hegseth",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Pete Hegseth: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Pete Hegseth officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nPete Hegseth has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nPete Hegseth is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nPete Hegseth is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1695.4131999999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "pete hegseth",
        "politician",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XY5PC06DP3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-RGRE",
      "question": "Will Richard Grenell be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Richard Grenell",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Richard Grenell: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Richard Grenell officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nRichard Grenell has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nRichard Grenell is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nRichard Grenell is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 580.804,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "politician",
        "richard grenell",
        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q44JL2ZLW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DFIG",
      "question": "Will Dinorah Figuera be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Dinorah Figuera",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Dinorah Figuera: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Dinorah Figuera officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nDinorah Figuera has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nDinorah Figuera is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nDinorah Figuera is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.04,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 672.3552000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dinorah figuera",
        "opposition",
        "politician",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2W44X5Q5S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DRON",
      "question": "Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Diosdado Cabello Rondón",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Diosdado Cabello Rondón: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Diosdado Cabello Rondón officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nDiosdado Cabello Rondón has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nDiosdado Cabello Rondón is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nDiosdado Cabello Rondón is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.02,
      "volume_total_usd": 815.5959,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diosdado cabello rond",
        "government",
        "politician",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F3CX7PM664",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-SMIL",
      "question": "Will Stephen Miller be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Stephen Miller",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Stephen Miller: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Stephen Miller officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nStephen Miller has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nStephen Miller is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nStephen Miller is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
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          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.009,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 598.149,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
        "politician",
        "stephen miller",
        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HFWNJRNHQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MRT",
      "question": "Will Miguel Rodríguez Torres be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Miguel Rodríguez Torres",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Miguel Rodríguez Torres: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Miguel Rodríguez Torres officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nMiguel Rodríguez Torres has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nMiguel Rodríguez Torres is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nMiguel Rodríguez Torres is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.02,
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      "volume_total_usd": 38.42,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "miguel rodr guez",
        "military",
        "politician",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KSC82F7P36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MBN31SWH10",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-JGUA",
      "question": "Will Juan Guaidó be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Juan Guaidó",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Juan Guaidó: The named individual's status as head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of official Venezuelan government sources by the resolution deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Juan Guaidó officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor the purposes of this contract, \"officially holds\" means any of the following:\n\nJuan Guaidó has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela\nJuan Guaidó is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela\nJuan Guaidó is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)\n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role:\n\nNominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective\nAppointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026\nPreviously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026\nServing as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity\nNamed as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed\nHolding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself\n\nClarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.\n\nUnder the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). \n\nMaduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy \"officially holds.\"\n\nMaduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.\n\nThis clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
            "url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "or company responsible for role",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "USAJobs.gov",
            "url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "person",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "agency",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Register",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government website",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Venezuelan state institutions",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Supreme Tribunal of Justice",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 33,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.029,
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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