{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
  "slug": "kxvoteprimary-lamayor1r26kbaskbas",
  "question": "Will Karen Bass receive more than 50% of the vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "los-angeles-politics",
    "mayoral-election",
    "karen-bass",
    "vote-share",
    "2027-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Karen Bass's first-round vote share in the 2027 Los Angeles mayoral election. Kalshi structures the event as discrete vote-share tiers spanning 0% to 50%-plus, while the canonical binary asks only whether Bass clears the 50% threshold for an outright first-round win. The Kalshi tier markets collectively map the full distribution of outcomes; the binary collapses that distribution to a single pass-or-fail strike. All markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination using official results certified by the Los Angeles City Clerk.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NFD20XWF27",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZ7XLP8893",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-7",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 0% and 15% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "Below 15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 15%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 0% to 14.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 43.98,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C6BTGY2B7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-17",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 15% and 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "15% - 20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "15% - 20%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 15% to 19.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 57.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-31Y6J94ZK5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-22",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 20% and 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "20% - 25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "20% - 25%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 20% to 24.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.7,
      "volume_total_usd": 66.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DF919X35H5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-27",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 25% and 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "25% - 30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "25% - 30%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 25% to 29.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.7,
      "volume_total_usd": 146.35,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFD20XWF27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-32",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 30% and 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "30% - 35%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "30% - 35%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 30% to 34.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 169.37,
      "volume_total_usd": 25388.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WD5H7P7PN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-37",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 35% and 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "35% - 40%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "35% - 40%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 35% to 39.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.7,
      "volume_total_usd": 146.87,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-569VJ7DWR1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-42",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 40% and 45% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "40% - 45%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "40% - 45%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 40% to 44.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.02,
      "volume_total_usd": 132.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 45,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4R99H1C11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-47",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive between 45% and 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "45% - 50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "45% - 50%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 45% to 49.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 97.35,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q096XG3KC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-75",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "At least 50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "At least 50%: Los Angeles municipal election official results from the city clerk's office resolve the named candidate's first-round popular vote percentage by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T15:24:20Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.usa.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government website of <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified percentage",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "certified results",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "certified results",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 208.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "karen bass vote",
        "los angeles",
        "mayoral election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZ7XLP8893",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C6BTGY2B7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-31Y6J94ZK5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DF919X35H5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFD20XWF27",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WD5H7P7PN5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-569VJ7DWR1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4R99H1C11",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q096XG3KC0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T15:54:23.832212Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3H8FLHR6N1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}