{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0KS4MHKP18",
  "slug": "kxvoteprimary-pa3d26astaasta",
  "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive more than 25% of the vote in the PA-03 Democratic primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "pennsylvania-politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "2026-election",
    "congressional-race",
    "vote-share-threshold"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Ala Stanford's vote share in the PA-03 2026 Democratic primary. The canonical question sets a binary 25% threshold; Kalshi structures the same event across seven discrete vote-share tiers spanning below 10% through 35% and above. The canonical question prices a directional threshold; Kalshi prices the rate level across a continuous range of bands. Pennsylvania's election authority provides official primary results, with resolution determined by Kalshi staff.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KXC5PKRDT9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.95
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HTKCNDDRV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0KS4MHKP18",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-5",
      "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive between 0% and 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary?",
      "description": "Below 10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 10%: Pennsylvania's election authority will report official primary results for the referenced candidate's vote share in the 2026 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, with resolution by Kalshi staff on May 19, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 0% to 9.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
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      "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive between 10% and 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary?",
      "description": "10% - 15%",
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      "underlying_reference": "10% - 15%: Pennsylvania's election authority will report official primary results for the referenced candidate's vote share in the 2026 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, with resolution by Kalshi staff on May 19, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 10% to 14.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0KS4MHKP18",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-17",
      "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive between 15% and 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary?",
      "description": "15% - 20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "15% - 20%: Pennsylvania's election authority will report official primary results for the referenced candidate's vote share in the 2026 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, with resolution by Kalshi staff on May 19, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 15% to 19.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KXC5PKRDT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0KS4MHKP18",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-22",
      "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive between 20% and 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary?",
      "description": "20% - 25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "20% - 25%: Pennsylvania's election authority will report official primary results for the referenced candidate's vote share in the 2026 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, with resolution by Kalshi staff on May 19, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 20% to 24.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17437.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 25,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WWVJG7BB41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0KS4MHKP18",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-27",
      "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive between 25% and 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary?",
      "description": "25% - 30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "25% - 30%: Pennsylvania's election authority will report official primary results for the referenced candidate's vote share in the 2026 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, with resolution by Kalshi staff on May 19, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 25% to 29.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
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      "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive between 30% and 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary?",
      "description": "30% - 35%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "30% - 35%: Pennsylvania's election authority will report official primary results for the referenced candidate's vote share in the 2026 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, with resolution by Kalshi staff on May 19, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 30% to 34.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "official government website of <geography>",
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      "question": "Will Ala Stanford receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary?",
      "description": "At least 35%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "At least 35%: Pennsylvania's election authority will report official primary results for the referenced candidate's vote share in the 2026 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, with resolution by Kalshi staff on May 19, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 35% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-0KS4MHKP18",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}