{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
  "slug": "kxwmtft-26aug08",
  "question": "Walmart monthly foot traffic U.S., July 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1140,
      1160
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1120,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1140,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1160,
        "prob": 27
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1180,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1200,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1220,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1240,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1260,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1280,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "walmart-foot-traffic",
    "retail-metrics",
    "us-commerce",
    "monthly-resolution",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Walmart US foot traffic for July 2026, sourced from Carbon Arc's mobile-panel dataset. Nine Kalshi strike thresholds span 1,120 million to 1,280 million visits in 20-million increments. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the July traffic level. Resolution via Kalshi staff determination follows Carbon Arc's published monthly report, expected by August 15, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C4GK3WZVW9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.27,
    "implied_probability": 0.27
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KLBN0PCJ03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1120",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1120 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1120 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1120 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1120 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 267.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1120,
      "question_id": "CMX-C687D50311",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHPT8VP6P2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1140",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1140 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1140 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1140 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1140 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.73,
      "volume_total_usd": 4083.79,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1140,
      "question_id": "CMX-9A730A78FD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C4GK3WZVW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1160",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1160 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1160 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1160 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1160 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 299.72,
      "volume_total_usd": 821.19,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1160,
      "question_id": "CMX-0F68E31AEB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0H23PLSZX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1180",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1180 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1180 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1180 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1180 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.02,
      "volume_total_usd": 59.94,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1180,
      "question_id": "CMX-BCDBF73BB2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LYV6YD98N7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1200",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1200 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1200 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1200 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1200 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.06,
      "volume_total_usd": 33.31,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200,
      "question_id": "CMX-F79A2A2C97",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-80YF99P346",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1220",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1220 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1220 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1220 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1220 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 16.54,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1220,
      "question_id": "CMX-B03CBBD531",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JX1GDNJTR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1240",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1240 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1240 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1240 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1240 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 16.76,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1240,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5304AB0B4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PJW8VBV284",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1260",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1260 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1260 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1260 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1260 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1260,
      "question_id": "CMX-5F9F7EEC5B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NVC02V49P9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWMTFT-26AUG08-T1280",
      "question": "Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1280 Million?",
      "description": "Above 1280 Million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1280 Million: Carbon Arc's reported US monthly foot traffic data for the referenced retail chain in July 2026, published by August 15, 2026, determines the outcome per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 is above 1280 Million, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nFor purposes of this market, the “Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US)” will resolve on the first July 2026 value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Carbon Arc",
            "url": "https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Carbon Arc",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.58,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1280,
      "question_id": "CMX-EAD0DCF2F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foot traffic",
        "retail",
        "us",
        "walmart",
        "walmart us monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-05HDMKRYW7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}