{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
  "slug": "kxwtimax-26dec31",
  "question": "WTI crude oil maximum settlement price, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      110,
      115
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 100,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 105,
        "prob": 81
      },
      {
        "threshold": 110,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 115,
        "prob": 24
      },
      {
        "threshold": 120,
        "prob": 20
      },
      {
        "threshold": 125,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 130,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 135,
        "prob": 12
      },
      {
        "threshold": 140,
        "prob": 12
      },
      {
        "threshold": 150,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 160,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 180,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200,
        "prob": 6
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "wti-oil",
    "energy-commodities",
    "price-ceiling",
    "2026",
    "financial-markets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether WTI front-month crude oil settles above discrete price thresholds by December 31, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike-ladder, pricing the probability of reaching each successive level from $115 to $200 per barrel. Each tier is a binary conditional on the next, forming an implicit tail-risk term structure for crude. ICE Settlements data, via Kalshi staff determination, resolves each contract.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2SYGZVVGP6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.302,
    "implied_probability": 0.302,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2SYGZVVGP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T115",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$115.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$115.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $115 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ICE",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ICE",
            "url": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ICE",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.302,
      "implied_probability": 0.302,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 536.94996,
      "volume_total_usd": 445558.04352,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 115,
      "question_id": "CMX-FE2B767464",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
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        "oil",
        "wti",
        "wti crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "commodity_prices"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N2BV0SJYV3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$120.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$120.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $120 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ICE",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ICE",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "ICE",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
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      "last_price": 0.262,
      "implied_probability": 0.262,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 809.65598,
      "volume_total_usd": 214585.4408,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 120,
      "question_id": "CMX-263F468CE0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
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        "oil",
        "wti",
        "wti crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "permitted_category": null,
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          "cluster": "commodity_prices"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XVV6M0DXR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T125",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$125.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$125.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $125 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ICE",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ICE",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "ICE",
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        "source_type": null,
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 63.5088,
      "volume_total_usd": 145607.8536,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 125,
      "question_id": "CMX-4B5340684A",
      "also_on": null,
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        "commodity",
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        "oil",
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        "wti crude oil"
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        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "permitted_category": null,
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FPNPKGPRC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T130",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$130.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$130.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $130 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ICE",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ICE",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ICE",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.176,
      "implied_probability": 0.176,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 766.5222399999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 115450.74463999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 130,
      "question_id": "CMX-465CF96DC8",
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        "commodity",
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        "oil",
        "wti",
        "wti crude oil"
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        {
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T0S84PC6F2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T135",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$135.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$135.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $135 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ICE",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
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          {
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.141,
      "implied_probability": 0.141,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 7.182539999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 64784.80892999999,
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      "question_id": "CMX-D324614629",
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        "wti crude oil"
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        {
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F842W9YF27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T140",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$140.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$140.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $140 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
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      "last_price": 0.151,
      "implied_probability": 0.151,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 63.90924,
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      "question_id": "CMX-A560C310B0",
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        "wti crude oil"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WHCVRYYJ51",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T150",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$150.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$150.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $150 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "ICE",
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      "last_price": 0.078,
      "implied_probability": 0.078,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 191.10702,
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      "threshold": 150,
      "question_id": "CMX-CF4D5ED1A5",
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        "wti crude oil"
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        {
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-84Z9YFR2R1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-08YPSXQR83",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T160",
      "question": "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $160.01 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "$160.01 or above",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$160.01 or above: ICE Settlements data for WTI front month crude oil will determine if the maximum daily settle price reached the threshold by December 31, 2026, with resolution by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $160 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "ICE",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.ice.com/report/10",
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        ],
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      "last_price": 0.083,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 35.05671,
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      "threshold": 160,
      "question_id": "CMX-DFC1D22FF5",
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        "oil",
        "wti",
        "wti crude oil"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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