{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
  "slug": "kxwtimin-26dec31",
  "question": "WTI crude oil minimum settlement price, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      50,
      85
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 50,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 55,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 60,
        "prob": 18
      },
      {
        "threshold": 65,
        "prob": 29
      },
      {
        "threshold": 70,
        "prob": 42
      },
      {
        "threshold": 75,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 80,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 85,
        "prob": 98
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "wti-crude-oil",
    "energy-commodities",
    "price-floor",
    "2026-resolution",
    "financial-derivatives"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether WTI front-month futures will touch discrete price thresholds by December 31, 2026. All eight markets are Kalshi binary strikes, structured as a ladder from $85 down to $50 in $5 increments. Each strike prices the probability of a minimum settle price breach, creating an implied cumulative distribution of downside outcomes. Kalshi staff determination uses the ICE front-month settle at market close on December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GHK5234QX0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BF14BY4H40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T85",
      "question": "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "84.99 or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "84.99 or below: WTI front month settle price on ICE at market close December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of ICE data by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-28T14:26:58Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $85 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ICE",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.theice.com/index",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 152498.81,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 85,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB220B1CE5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "energy",
        "oil",
        "wti",
        "wti crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7T5T9LPGM3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T80",
      "question": "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "79.99 or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "79.99 or below: WTI front month settle price on ICE at market close December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of ICE data by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-07T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $80 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_of_record": "ICE",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": "CMX-B4833FD11E",
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        "commodity",
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        "wti crude oil"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HPCQT53F49",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T75",
      "question": "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "74.99 or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "74.99 or below: WTI front month settle price on ICE at market close December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of ICE data by January 7, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T19:30:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $75 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
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      "last_price": 0.99,
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      "question_id": "CMX-ED9BF236CF",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HNP82RQTX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T70",
      "question": "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $70 by Dec 31, 2026?",
      "description": "69.99 or below",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "69.99 or below: WTI front month settle price on ICE at market close December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of ICE data by January 7, 2027.",
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        "rules_raw": "If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $70 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question_id": "CMX-901314120C",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8PC4PML3H0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T65",
      "question": "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "64.99 or below: WTI front month settle price on ICE at market close December 31, 2026, determined by Kalshi staff review of ICE data by January 7, 2027.",
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      "question": "Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $55 by Dec 31, 2026?",
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      "final_price": 0.98,
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}