{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Q06G7L3R3",
  "slug": "kxwtivsbrent-26dec31",
  "question": "Will WTI's annual return exceed Brent's annual return?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "crude-oil",
    "energy-commodities",
    "comparative-returns",
    "2027",
    "wti-brent"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the annual return differential between WTI and Brent crude oil benchmarks through January 1, 2027. One contract asks whether WTI outperforms Brent; the other asks the mirror question. The two markets are structurally inverse, so their implied probabilities should sum to roughly 100%. Kalshi staff determination will compare each benchmark's full-year price return to resolve both contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V541K2KCF6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.69,
    "implied_probability": 0.69
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6QQL8MJP35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Q06G7L3R3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIVSBRENT-26DEC31-WTI",
      "question": "Will WTI Crude Oil outperform Brent Crude Oil?",
      "description": "WTI Crude Oil",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "WTI Crude Oil: Kalshi staff determination on January 1, 2027 will compare the named commodity's performance against its specified benchmark using publicly available price data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If WTI Crude Oil performs above Brent Crude Oil for the period of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd  then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPercent return is calculated from the official open price of WTI Crude Oil on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if WTI Crude Oil opens at $80.00 per barrel on January 2, 2026 and closes at $90.00 per barrel on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of WTI Crude Oil is +12.500%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "loose",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 2509.6467000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F6910B8A70",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "wti",
        "wti crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V541K2KCF6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Q06G7L3R3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXWTIVSBRENT-26DEC31-BRENT",
      "question": "Will Brent Crude Oil outperform WTI Crude Oil?",
      "description": "Brent Crude Oil",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Brent Crude Oil: Kalshi staff determination on January 1, 2027 will compare the named commodity's performance against its specified benchmark using publicly available price data.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Brent Crude Oil performs above WTI Crude Oil for the period of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd  then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPercent return is calculated from the official open price of WTI Crude Oil on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if WTI Crude Oil opens at $80.00 per barrel on January 2, 2026 and closes at $90.00 per barrel on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of WTI Crude Oil is +12.500%.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "For example, Google Finance",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "For example, Google Finance",
            "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "loose",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.69,
      "implied_probability": 0.69,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5065.3796999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5CFBAF3C4F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brent",
        "brent crude oil",
        "crude oil",
        "energy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0Q06G7L3R3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}