{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MH9KTJJZ41",
  "slug": "lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Lai Ching-te be out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "taiwan-politics",
    "executive-succession",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026",
    "political-removal",
    "asia-pacific"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Lai Ching-te vacates the Taiwanese presidency before end of 2026. Only one market exists, a Polymarket binary. No structural cross-platform contrast is present. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle to determine if Lai ceases to hold office by December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-79W4YX7Z34",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.048,
    "implied_probability": 0.048
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-79W4YX7Z34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MH9KTJJZ41",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x68e47e45601b8e7fff925490f419191126c0f87cdf978717881fd2efa18cfb5b",
      "question": "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this ma",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.048,
      "implied_probability": 0.048,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 105461.95248,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "lai ching te",
        "lai ching-te",
        "politics",
        "taiwan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MH9KTJJZ41",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}