{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
  "slug": "largest-company-end-of-december-2026",
  "question": "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "market-cap",
    "tech-giants",
    "economy",
    "business",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which company holds the largest global market capitalization at December 31, 2026 close. Each Polymarket contract is a binary outcome on a single named company, collectively spanning the likely contenders. The suite prices per-company probability rather than a ranked range, so implied probabilities across contracts should sum to approximately one. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using publicly available market cap data as of the December 31, 2026 close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L3LG3J7L41",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.77,
    "implied_probability": 0.77,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L3LG3J7L41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x684e5b72d4e407695397a79ed75ef37273c2655ca2548791a4153233d3744696",
      "question": "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "NVIDIA: The named company with the largest market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026, determined by consensus of credible financial reporting via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 6894.6286900000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 1156770.2375180002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-94F4A42927",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N79DC6HNK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6b978bfe3f8b58edd400556fa8d1f582d4b4f60d12286245af249fa8a6446bca",
      "question": "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Microsoft: The named company with the largest market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026, determined by consensus of credible financial reporting via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1288.9468000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 940418.2352900001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4AD1BF85B1",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3BX7NG3634",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x55a5a4b50b7947482e95af8f638fa0b8d9a46740c5cd04c6799443e83565176a",
      "question": "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "underlying_reference": "Apple: The named company with the largest market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026, determined by consensus of credible financial reporting via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.136,
      "implied_probability": 0.136,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2254.406639,
      "volume_total_usd": 888033.5946369998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7E1E435F2D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q7GGRG5G47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x39676b9161ea372b38115423a5de8f700f1888c35dd0fb2be07d96510ec28f7c",
      "question": "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alphabet: The named company with the largest market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026, determined by consensus of credible financial reporting via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2357.636546,
      "volume_total_usd": 692457.506712,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4ED3E874E8",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6C5R6KWCS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f403ffb53e114cbc81c5f07a0f3971886c67b67af7c260f0117d3f63ba54af4",
      "question": "Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Tesla: The named company with the largest market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026, determined by consensus of credible financial reporting via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1284.2870000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 753144.3728570002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4A80C8C84C",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CBRDDNDGT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-CA52B16450",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z0HCYRT62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
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      "question": "Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
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      "question": "Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Company B be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5CBMT561R5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x27c69b142b2183c1f5e426a8935cd1ed1e6cd72ceb2195b4b3c65ef8eb3d4c83",
      "question": "Will Company C be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Company C: The named company with the largest market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026, determined by consensus of credible financial reporting via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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