{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
  "slug": "lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipo",
  "question": "Will a lead bank be designated for Anthropic's IPO?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "finance",
    "business",
    "ipo-underwriting",
    "anthropic",
    "investment-banking"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which bank will serve as lead underwriter in Anthropic's IPO, with resolution by 2027-12-31. Polymarket structures this as parallel binary contracts, one per named institution. Each contract resolves independently via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Multiple contracts can resolve true if co-lead arrangements are disclosed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4V3WVH1J08",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.67,
    "implied_probability": 0.67
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4V3WVH1J08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdee26876ad54f7d8b491fa1438a0e99a8aa855b9ed077eb9d290c6ef0c877df4",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Morgan Stanley: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official disclosures from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "A consensus of credible reporting may also be used",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.67,
      "implied_probability": 0.67,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 10560.995944000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3D0D3E273",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWPWG8YP15",
          "price": 0.68
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-VGVWGHF4G3",
          "price": 0.35
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0D28RCKF4",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-TYPBBS8GW8",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KLLK1TZGJ6",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-97TBMB56T6",
          "price": 0.01
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "lead bank anthropic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W2P08XRN09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x27dcf3218163c07c9509240174f145ec03631f5598ad8d216fa369878b94fbd8",
      "question": "Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Goldman Sachs: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official disclosures from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "A consensus of credible reporting may also be used",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 6750.763849000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3D0D3E273",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWPWG8YP15",
          "price": 0.68
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-VGVWGHF4G3",
          "price": 0.35
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0D28RCKF4",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-TYPBBS8GW8",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KLLK1TZGJ6",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-97TBMB56T6",
          "price": 0.01
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "lead bank anthropic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MS8L6M38G9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45db9db6a4991887a0505beb1ec738780bbb9b028a57ac062b47392e48dd8149",
      "question": "Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "JPMorgan: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official disclosures from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "A consensus of credible reporting may also be used",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 6074.933416,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3D0D3E273",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWPWG8YP15",
          "price": 0.68
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-VGVWGHF4G3",
          "price": 0.35
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0D28RCKF4",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-TYPBBS8GW8",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KLLK1TZGJ6",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-97TBMB56T6",
          "price": 0.01
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "lead bank anthropic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4GNZDH9NH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbfafbe268a84fcfb6b85a0638b3dc8fda5e12f9c1908deafd8a361d56366296c",
      "question": "Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of America: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official disclosures from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "A consensus of credible reporting may also be used",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.031,
      "implied_probability": 0.031,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4038.499398000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3D0D3E273",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWPWG8YP15",
          "price": 0.68
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-VGVWGHF4G3",
          "price": 0.35
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0D28RCKF4",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-TYPBBS8GW8",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KLLK1TZGJ6",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-97TBMB56T6",
          "price": 0.01
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "lead bank anthropic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1VT0C53Y11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2e27604d359a17606844713c9a66d30286275f67f89b3b9a3f20b6465337777e",
      "question": "Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Citigroup: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official disclosures from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "A consensus of credible reporting may also be used",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4355.344256,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3D0D3E273",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWPWG8YP15",
          "price": 0.68
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-VGVWGHF4G3",
          "price": 0.35
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-L0D28RCKF4",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-TYPBBS8GW8",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KLLK1TZGJ6",
          "price": 0.04
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-97TBMB56T6",
          "price": 0.01
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "lead bank anthropic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V5KWMRFPK8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5c6547dc2470f11abc90fe04d801b43490343e9e6dc334749a5fe478cad148f9",
      "question": "Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Barclays: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official disclosures from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
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      "question": "Will Bank C or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?",
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      "description": "This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the o",
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