{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
  "slug": "lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381",
  "question": "Will Lecornu be out as French Prime Minister by the settlement date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "french-politics",
    "executive-turnover",
    "government-resignation",
    "2025",
    "prime-minister"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Sébastien Lecornu exits the French Prime Minister role before each successive deadline. The five Polymarket contracts form a term-structure ladder spanning October 31, 2025 through December 31, 2026. Each contract resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly verifiable French government records. The October 31 market carries a resolve_at timestamp of November 1, 2026, introducing a brief post-deadline confirmation window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NQT2YX04L8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQT2YX04L8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb84317723d587230a12deb6377bb191044601a882ce7ebdd0af3ab2279c70d7d",
      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by October 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-11-01T06:24:06Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 159092.206496,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fran ois lecornu",
        "france",
        "government",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-41123PJBJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0ec60f3efd7f662108d26b043241318d7bc7770363b0f6452cd53e81512ff406",
      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T10:15:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 129159.788437,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fran ois lecornu",
        "france",
        "government",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK6PFCJRD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x77d86f7a60267ac2d6191921c746df79bb64b3140e8f4c8b3ae727418e6111e8",
      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by November 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "November 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-01T07:29:42Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 5187.379434,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fran ois lecornu",
        "france",
        "government",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RC3X5HQ074",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3f392befb90448d60e3dff240fa2baca5b9c902aab3d3f1896166388c975279b",
      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 22764.812779,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fran ois lecornu",
        "france",
        "government",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H0HSTV9688",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5008486648e1504fc35d468ab774f4e081b9f93f6879840519656af94bdf5cc8",
      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 127.791903,
      "volume_total_usd": 9303.447096000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fran ois lecornu",
        "france",
        "government",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RC3X5HQ074",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-41123PJBJ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T10:15:15Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK6PFCJRD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-12-01T07:29:42Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQT2YX04L8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-11-01T06:24:06Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}