{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
  "slug": "lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381",
  "question": "Will Lecornu be out as French PM? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "french-government",
    "prime-minister",
    "2026",
    "executive-turnover",
    "political-resignation"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Sébastien Lecornu departs the French prime ministership before successive calendar deadlines spanning 2026. Each contract is a binary on a distinct cutoff date, creating a term-structure of political-exit probability across the year. Earlier-dated contracts imply tighter near-term removal risk; later-dated contracts embed cumulative probability through December 31, 2026. All eight contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
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    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by July 31, 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:23:30Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by September 30, 2026?",
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      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by August 31, 2026?",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0ec60f3efd7f662108d26b043241318d7bc7770363b0f6452cd53e81512ff406",
      "question": "Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be us",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.28,
      "implied_probability": 0.28,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
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      "volume_total_usd": 12966.665012999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
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        "france",
        "lecornu",
        "prime minister"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J9PK5FQ9D4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-01T06:23:30Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RC3X5HQ074",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:49:34Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-41123PJBJ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T10:15:15Z",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK6PFCJRD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-12-01T07:29:42Z",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQT2YX04L8",
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      "resolved_at": "2025-11-01T06:24:06Z",
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      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}