{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
  "slug": "ledger-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",
  "question": "Will Ledger's IPO closing market cap be above ___?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "crypto",
    "tech",
    "finance",
    "ipo",
    "market-cap"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Ledger's first-day closing market capitalization at seven binary strike thresholds, from $1B to $7B. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the primary exchange's reported closing market cap. Together they form an implied probability distribution over Ledger's debut valuation. The authoritative source is the primary exchange listing Ledger's shares on IPO day.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6F196BHHS9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.403,
    "implied_probability": 0.403
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6F196BHHS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x65709cf67a5028452bd9c6a7402d26b88efc26eee46ecb1750c9709dcaf02397",
      "question": "Ledger IPO closing market cap above $1B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, as reported by the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.403,
      "implied_probability": 0.403,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8262.247481000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6EF10D4B8D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "ledger",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-07WXTC2BH5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x095de7da5e67959e0ae41d6c39760946ea913cc7aaf80a18e4567e53c8bb07be",
      "question": "Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, as reported by the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.302,
      "implied_probability": 0.302,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4113.748299000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-62C94920CD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "ledger",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D7MFRX22G0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5c9a407c72387e303782e3c21b47e9241648f8ce071125a21f97399e2d6d859d",
      "question": "Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$3B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, as reported by the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1681.9619710000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A0D5616E5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "ledger",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CH4T70KKN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe6c07cf6ca8b211577788d102a850b36c15a72006c79142d3cc0dd95d0169171",
      "question": "Ledger IPO closing market cap above $4B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$4B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, as reported by the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.78,
      "volume_total_usd": 1635.3055350000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-46E1A6FFB8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "ledger",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1B6QN6Z8X1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5e99baa108e4f0c78a54cfe885955d4f51d76affe481e533dbc9a063563a0736",
      "question": "Ledger IPO closing market cap above $5B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$5B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, as reported by the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3814.650250999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F1681BA62",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "ledger",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8GN3V4NS87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6ccd7d1910be488e5cfc95d0fb481d1de90e109e46c59376c479f45960f4bf88",
      "question": "Ledger IPO closing market cap above $6B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$6B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, as reported by the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 433.991484,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8B213027DA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "ledger",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G1P9ML3KR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5d4d82c26e6713280afc56321e2a1ffd727c212fdb1583e72ca7bc35353a5a1e",
      "question": "Ledger IPO closing market cap above $7B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$7B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, as reported by the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, resolves by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.253,
      "implied_probability": 0.253,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 667.5396639999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FCEE53FC65",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "ledger",
        "market-cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}