{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
  "slug": "likud-party-primary-winner-20260720203933764",
  "question": "Will the Likud Party hold its primary election by the settlement date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "israel",
    "likud-party",
    "party-primary",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Likud party leadership primary. Polymarket structures the event as candidate-specific binary contracts, each resolving YES or NO for a named contender. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Israeli media reports or official party announcements. A notable caveat: one contract prices the probability that no primary occurs before the next Knesset election.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FX6NQY14Q5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CN1QSDD6B8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa151948196cab14ceefae6bb6ed7ce3e8397fde99b66be7acfd1d1fe0078fb5a",
      "question": "Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Amir Ohana: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.793224,
      "volume_total_usd": 7020.333378,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LR724BQY50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffa99cf8c9f37ec73da6342064ddcbbc87559df3a78b04f6595f6f9113a4b183",
      "question": "Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Nir Barkat: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1584.9511479999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9HMXCJHBC4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x03d4e9b6261dac086ab6a59dd90bea3be661423611e78e566dfd4365d23b3c57",
      "question": "Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Tally Gotliv: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 170.145333,
      "volume_total_usd": 4420.205627,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1L7MCYJKD0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45ead75c5ac918298e829c452b0c9295a6a24e1a4ee0cbc2d58795c97b30ccdd",
      "question": "Will Israel Katz win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Israel Katz: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1527.626507,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0398FKHCV2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5d9f64599324df160985cf384229371ee52492aedf43f25d989250f8c13f9d57",
      "question": "Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Yariv Levin: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.215,
      "implied_probability": 0.215,
      "volume_24h_usd": 42.642004,
      "volume_total_usd": 1732.6039199999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5Z7M73FZF7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca1e4c6e31ec0768c07e3f77e69672af1e79e01372f4a663fba3034f029ed334",
      "question": "Will Moshe Saada win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Moshe Saada: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 487.59884999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PS0J8K2HM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf88ccac2af2b0757e76a0a00426bcce3dd4839c53528176ca8a632ac8848d920",
      "question": "Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Eli Cohen: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 320.302193,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CB4Q8TR317",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa9d526f6cafc8087fff808e6cdb6a892930507d60213d5a540878fbca88efe3a",
      "question": "Will David Amsalem win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "David Amsalem: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.059,
      "implied_probability": 0.059,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 244.093451,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4ZYNGSKM1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0317bfe0d912760f5260e618902c467ae6945084b636e3716e639f978ad73e01",
      "question": "Will Miki Zohar win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Miki Zohar: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.043,
      "implied_probability": 0.043,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 230.40011199999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B42G0QY753",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x789410ab218f8127ea58007b4f5ab600ad5ed4483f34d30656812d97129e4ffd",
      "question": "Will Boaz Bismuth win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Boaz Bismuth: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 497.59884999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CQ5VWXYS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5c40924cfc3eba15aeeddd482db9e3d7d0a66d7138f384c10e5e0ad46febc73",
      "question": "Will Almog Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Almog Cohen: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.063,
      "implied_probability": 0.063,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 223.017314,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MKKPVW11S3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xacc2fbccf1f28dcd2bb640500c6def589614ee651e6a492a493e0a620b10c512",
      "question": "Will Amichai Chikli win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Amichai Chikli: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.056,
      "implied_probability": 0.056,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 225.001441,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZYGWCW0ZY7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x13f405c9d79e93934611839bb75cfbbf53e2683c85663b3335a5e38ab107b174",
      "question": "Will David Bitan win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "David Bitan: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 499.64681700000006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RLQYCSNKS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x737bfd9e17c04ce6bd1a586799a1d00f51dae42da2c8cc00d7ba84c6df9bc465",
      "question": "Will Shlomo Karhi win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shlomo Karhi: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 330.1443,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFX9VGJD55",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa5a9f0bc52fe95efa56c43916882bb262ea9250ed07fcc75290c9d77f2635091",
      "question": "Will Miri Regev win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Miri Regev: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.055,
      "implied_probability": 0.055,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 225.32611699999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6D39DKPTP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7729f60f970bc92aad9276f4de045486498c1d2bf0497fcc66546e27c858ca10",
      "question": "Will Yoav Kisch win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Yoav Kisch: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.054,
      "implied_probability": 0.054,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 215.662817,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FX6NQY14Q5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbe25219d8cebbc789e66f1b9276525a903b9f044f145633ad6121af335d2b85a",
      "question": "Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Primary by Knesset Election: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 157.43836299999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 9101.441513,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GPSDN9KM40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x14176cb1464c403e96806cd2c7efa16a628fb7c60a618511f42921af95052773",
      "question": "Will Person B win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person B: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YMJFVRJ002",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdaeda59b74bcfee0c803d0170c79d782ec47f852d63dcbde765fc7345ed5cece",
      "question": "Will Person C win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person C: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LMSRQ35J77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6d8bbbcc7e4549d2bebfe27095e3c890f1655ab7ce8b589c1bff4e65f80dbd2b",
      "question": "Will Person D win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person D: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DCZ002X5T3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9b6a795eae1500f94b55eb3e114a5f31e6265044050bc962d4908491ad279ad0",
      "question": "Will Person E win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person E: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2WBZGXTKJ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb2bc5ee6e2a59bd47e8a6cfba36b48c33ca721ad023d28bfa4a254aff3549158",
      "question": "Will Person F win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person F: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9MQQB6FBJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa98273ad716c6b31aef3e6d181b0ce92ed5f82fd1f5e2d0b574fd149a7174073",
      "question": "Will Person G win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person G: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8XPW5CS251",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6479c9a1ccd02036ecc2e8434f7e1f89b553d4a50152ed70dea8af6e8d492ff8",
      "question": "Will Person H win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person H: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-31TMMY1CL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x492c6d79ddd62749e0244b272be9d9a3dce0e165acff062493fef72c366ea0a1",
      "question": "Will Person I win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person I: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6N4215RLJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf3fcd7016c4db33129fdcd4fe71aa75c4a8a6b1a441c7626c2f54d191f49e8a0",
      "question": "Will Person J win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person J: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P5QBWS1MQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc3a368213e18407f76e232505c600eb1cd0a91eb9817e2a3b24f7af4cc45b92c",
      "question": "Will Person K win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person K: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7CBKYH5B26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd5466163526afeaa38ffb575dda23af4e2de6f2effe64b0b85a67cbdc1d77465",
      "question": "Will Person L win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person L: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QJQ1LMGY89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7390aa464a377b0899cfa81abcd705f8c13ec1da14e3f321736a4d5646e59628",
      "question": "Will Person M win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person M: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BJV9NRDG33",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4ee649641ad0e6ebb0c2235848665fd9e3eb97261ece836136107fb9606053db",
      "question": "Will Person N win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person N: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-631DXJ2B75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8b5c5862b648efe3b375cbe22a91ee487045a5b46866672858deeaec471243c1",
      "question": "Will Person O win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person O: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TMJWC07Y3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x083c7514e41d91e76fb012cc9dc01237925c3de26091703d72eb0a5dc3d3e136",
      "question": "Will Person P win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person P: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T0N4T28240",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaa4883014ed02486299e12957a7914f41909dd7ecf54d526a9224160aa6162c5",
      "question": "Will Person Q win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person Q: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C4QKSB222",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaa1a6a55cb4757db7f3a33349a6fb29c3afe5af2b42340dc38a1318d3a12c59a",
      "question": "Will Person R win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person R: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7N7BWTPM39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x21a661dce865cb6c60dba2a63b170ea6e39a113901adf80224410e2d84cb1ca3",
      "question": "Will Person S win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person S: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WY4TP4PB01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xed976f78c89be967457d95e188e693156f9b3a6f8b338dfd5538609f36ab9213",
      "question": "Will Person T win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person T: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P38NCK8K27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ec0d6ad2d6d4808b7258c0352a1e955df85773011a677a55c78b38c9c8df7de",
      "question": "Will Person U win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person U: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Likud",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TVZ93PXSS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffb33bd3e8810b3b0dffc7c2aa72178dbbf120c8ee690e53f3e38cf043e8095e",
      "question": "Will Person V win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person V: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "likud party primary"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6TD9WKVZH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0f006b1985448f824d05df93bf10d342109d27051f7696aa0aae26ddb72ea3b7",
      "question": "Will Person W win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person W: The Likud Party primary election winner, as determined by Israeli media reports or official party announcement by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, or no primary occurs and market resolves to that outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-49XG4NZQL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x83703a63ec1d314c5cde46f2202a6071f830b357a8f57438a86aa8750ecb5ac1",
      "question": "Will Person X win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to \"No Primary by Knesset Election\". \n\nIf the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.",
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Person Y win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-26T23:59:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YB4NWZXTS7",
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      "question": "Will another person win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?",
      "description": "Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.\n\nIf no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released,",
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