{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
  "slug": "los-angeles-mayoral-election-117",
  "question": "Will there be a Los Angeles mayoral election by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "los-angeles",
    "us-local-elections",
    "2026",
    "mayoral-race"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets collectively price the outcome of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Polymarket lists 15 binary contracts, each asking whether a named candidate wins. The contracts are mutually exclusive; exactly one resolves YES. Resolution relies on City of Los Angeles official results certified by July 1, 2026, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3209N37NT9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.003,
    "implied_probability": 0.003
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-35H788QKR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0c9ada12c527451fbdd43c0397a8a006b8aaf2a01567ae069d37220b51937595",
      "question": "Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Karen Bass: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 876.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 708661.626219003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "karen bass",
        "los angeles",
        "mayor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XM9D05QTD2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82e5dd4b66138d0a377d4551aa4fc237b85090f96c531ac5db470ffc817d7c32",
      "question": "Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Rick Caruso: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T14:48:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 494515.0113289999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "los angeles",
        "mayor",
        "rick caruso"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TST1V3Q2H3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x026b38cfc6ef180e30b7ff8929ca68cf5ea62ec1be201be7b509792938add0a5",
      "question": "Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Asaad Alnajjar: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T17:54:40Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 140311.32714399995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "asaad alnajjar",
        "los angeles",
        "mayor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M376867545",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5b89585543fd30fd03dc853608fe3c7cb7d8cf40cb14c82b69f931a74602dd83",
      "question": "Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Gina Viola: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T14:40:14Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 166043.50011100018,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gina viola",
        "los angeles",
        "mayor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5J26CWFFD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x887dc9e7ff30f7a3ef6e7f605eff9ab34adbb0374f68f8c2a6a185f38d67f76f",
      "question": "Will another candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "los angeles",
        "mayor",
        "other candidate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3209N37NT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5a965e943de13a4bdef4fb568d94341a751f02a2f652fa4fb8377d8b02f84606",
      "question": "Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Spencer Pratt: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T12:24:25Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7857675.11950206,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "los angeles",
        "mayor",
        "spencer pratt"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S5CX0XJJV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x540b8eef280e57acbee903aee61b767fd13b532fda485aa293768b1fdd8e1c3e",
      "question": "Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Austin Beutner: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T16:51:25Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 44924.630729,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "austin beutner",
        "los angeles",
        "mayor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBNLB0XM83",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe3c0572e4862d30067eefe3bbcd8730cf35f2e43160592187c0cac2f2666758d",
      "question": "Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Horvath: The City of Los Angeles official election results, certified by July 1, 2026, determine which candidate wins the mayoral election held June 2, 2026, or November 3, 2026 runoff.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T15:03:41Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "City of Los Angeles",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
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