{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VFXN2TD3K6",
  "slug": "luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Luigi Mangione be out of custody before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "luigi-mangione",
    "criminal-justice",
    "legal-proceedings",
    "2026",
    "pop-culture"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Luigi Mangione will be released from custody before December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the yes/no outcome directly. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle to confirm custody status by the deadline. No competing rate-level or margin structure exists across platforms.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q0Z358YM28",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q0Z358YM28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VFXN2TD3K6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdfd77792b61741d393fa8696696fb6588636b2f25ecc4796faa97440fbb5f312",
      "question": "Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Mangione to another location of cu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 16290.345100000011,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "custody",
        "legal",
        "luigi mangione custody",
        "person"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VFXN2TD3K6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}