{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-20RBBXSB30",
  "slug": "macron-out-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Emmanuel Macron be out of office? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "france",
    "macron",
    "2025",
    "political-resignation",
    "european-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether French President Emmanuel Macron leaves office across three discrete deadlines: October 31, 2025, December 31, 2025, and June 30, 2026. Each is a binary outcome market; the structural difference is deadline horizon, not directional or magnitude variation. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly observable facts at each cutoff. The October 31 and December 31 2025 markets have passed their resolve dates, with settlement recorded by January 1, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1Q3C4XRVC9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1Q3C4XRVC9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-20RBBXSB30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6301809524e73edb9ab1bd180101ae6d9588ba78075a64c479f334a6d2a12975",
      "question": "Macron out in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:08:43Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the government of France",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1386219.767204,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xda5c517dd5b78c80dec8ceb08ca4f466317633487827d7290332b4851cc4a4fa",
      "question": "Macron out by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2005.224,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "0xdc7ff8e7d1bf22e6b9f372b3122bf553ed7bfedebc500e76e61aab35d9ebdb8e",
      "question": "Macron out by October 31, 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-10-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-11-01T06:28:10Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the government of France",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 205624.507422,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2RVV8ZV5D8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1Q3C4XRVC9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T09:08:43Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9CKKYPWW42",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-11-01T06:28:10Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-20RBBXSB30",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}