{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
  "slug": "maduro-prison-time-527",
  "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro serve prison time?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "venezuela",
    "criminal-justice",
    "maduro",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the sentencing outcome for Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Five discrete tier markets span the full range: no prison time, under 20 years, 20-40 years, 40-60 years, and 60 or more years. Together they form an exhaustive, mutually exclusive distribution of possible sentence lengths. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the court's formal sentencing record, with a resolution deadline of December 31, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RHZ7QJH0T3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.36,
    "implied_probability": 0.36
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2PZ84B7X77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3c47492aa10470e0276d38fc8a1dd6e983fb63764587599aa379cc904425b641",
      "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?",
      "description": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20–40: The prison sentence imposed on the named defendant by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York relating to the January 2026 indictment, determined by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.\n\nIf the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.49,
      "volume_total_usd": 52587.613863999926,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "legal",
        "maduro",
        "nicol maduro prison",
        "prison",
        "venezuela"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5CS4Y30770",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5e253008e2c8a4f1e66972062d99e69aea298794ec56c30526a2edd763d6b9e3",
      "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?",
      "description": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<20: The prison sentence imposed on the named defendant by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York relating to the January 2026 indictment, determined by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.\n\nIf the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.077,
      "implied_probability": 0.077,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 103346.01066900001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "legal",
        "maduro",
        "nicol maduro prison",
        "prison",
        "venezuela"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R3RGK671L2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xce500e0cdc77863e3ae46ea2f8fc7afea2e94e703761e4004065e23fe8629881",
      "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?",
      "description": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "60+: The prison sentence imposed on the named defendant by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York relating to the January 2026 indictment, determined by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.\n\nIf the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 40809.34096899993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 60,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "maduro",
        "nicol maduro prison",
        "prison",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RHZ7QJH0T3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3db0178f6ee00011e6ede975436532edec684ca3facc8f8eb26d8ce9f4464717",
      "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?",
      "description": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No prison time: The prison sentence imposed on the named defendant by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York relating to the January 2026 indictment, determined by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.\n\nIf the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4,
      "volume_total_usd": 430091.002456,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2W0TH6HZT5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x102b81444798333f38ee4db446276f692228d33533a16b890b2f37df6394ef85",
      "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?",
      "description": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40–60: The prison sentence imposed on the named defendant by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York relating to the January 2026 indictment, determined by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.\n\nIf the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "score": 59,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.128,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 22020.27535199999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}