{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3641XVMNW4",
  "slug": "mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president-by",
  "question": "Will Mahmoud Abbas be out as Palestinian President by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "palestinian-authority",
    "leadership-transition",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Mahmoud Abbas departs the Palestinian presidency within a defined window. The June 30 contract sets a near-term binary; the December 31 contract extends the same question by two quarters. The structural difference is time horizon: one prices imminent succession risk, the other prices a full-year window. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-P8HFR0JHN1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.002
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P8HFR0JHN1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3641XVMNW4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a5a2f0dee907cdb831d2f697674cd6827ab0cafdab130615b8ec656b62ce51a",
      "question": "Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the spe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T09:31:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 88600.08371100001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "mahmoud abbas palestinian",
        "palestinian-authority",
        "political-event"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HZ1KCPR6P5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3641XVMNW4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xddeb88745cb5ad8c67dd08d9fdf322c316ae5f36fdd21b89ff3ec090b6fa1fec",
      "question": "Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the spe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 47567.90795899999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P8HFR0JHN1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-01T09:31:35Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3641XVMNW4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}