{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D87V37GQ54",
  "slug": "major-cex-insolvent-in-2026",
  "question": "Will a major centralized cryptocurrency exchange become insolvent in 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "exchange-solvency",
    "systemic-risk",
    "2026-events",
    "cex-operations",
    "financial-stability"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a major centralized crypto exchange becomes insolvent in 2026. Covered exchanges include Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, and Kraken. Resolution requires official insolvency statements or credible reporting consensus, via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform insight applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-13RF9LXD74",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-13RF9LXD74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D87V37GQ54",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8c8d8c91540aedf3f4ca4194256e9421843ef122155284129f3f5057ad5ec703",
      "question": "Major CEX insolvent in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. \n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official statements from Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, or credible reporting consensus, announcing insolvency or bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. \n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 100,
      "volume_total_usd": 128971.42641299996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-594445CC07",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cex",
        "crypto",
        "insolvency",
        "major centralized exchange"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D87V37GQ54",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}