{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-783J2KBHQ0",
  "slug": "major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948",
  "question": "What will be the predicted Federal Reserve interest rate under each Federal Reserve Chair?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-chair",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "fed-leadership",
    "economic-forecasting"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track joint outcomes combining Fed Chair confirmation with the federal funds rate target level by end of 2026. Each contract pairs a named candidate's Senate confirmation against a binary rate threshold: at or below 2.5%, or above 2.5%. A catch-all contract covers outcomes outside the four named candidates. All nine markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Federal Reserve Board of Governors rate data.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YV78141XB4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.005
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C232XPB0L5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-783J2KBHQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2454c412d48443a73e15d93ae01e20caefd5d64a3865b67bc0a465fdac459c77",
      "question": "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%: The named candidate's Senate confirmation status and the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate lower bound reaching 2.5% or below by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nConfirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.\n\nRecess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nActing or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\n2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?\nThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nNote: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.",
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "last_price": 0.045,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6099.128266999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-84BFC8BAC3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-783J2KBHQ0",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x81d603fe35c07415741bb9007bead4cdbddeb80fb35d5c9b6573eae9ee39fc1f",
      "question": "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%: The named candidate's Senate confirmation status and the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate lower bound reaching 2.5% or below by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nConfirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.\n\nRecess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nActing or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\n2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?\nThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nNote: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.",
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          {
            "name": "senate.gov",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8279.576003999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-65051B01A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "kevin warsh"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CKKMDYH7Z7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-783J2KBHQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd8aa928c90a14d70ede48f27543293c03ef8305420105518c3349f993e8fb4b4",
      "question": "Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5%: The named candidate's Senate confirmation status and the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate lower bound reaching 2.5% or below by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-14T07:54:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nConfirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.\n\nRecess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nActing or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\n2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?\nThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nNote: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.",
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D7E1A8DD5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2W8BGXQPV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-783J2KBHQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa588a3f30682fa83bbc87034e24c9c0fe328435b8abcc390c653de2a51e2f229",
      "question": "Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5%: The named candidate's Senate confirmation status and the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate lower bound reaching 2.5% or below by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-14T07:55:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nConfirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.\n\nRecess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nActing or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\n2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?\nThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nNote: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.",
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            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",
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      "last_price": 0.002,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11142.963933,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-24359FF172",
      "also_on": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YV78141XB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-783J2KBHQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6d08ed1eadd870cd00c92048dda2fe06650e15905f8828ddf15e4d2186898029",
      "question": "Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?\nThis market will resolve according to the next individ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5%: The named candidate's Senate confirmation status and the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate lower bound reaching 2.5% or below by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-14T04:30:10Z",
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