{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJ985D1D01",
  "slug": "major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026",
  "question": "Will a major volcano eruption with VEI ≥6 occur in 2026?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "natural-disaster",
    "geological-event",
    "vei-scale",
    "2026-occurrence",
    "extreme-weather"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any volcano reaches a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 or greater during calendar year 2026. Resolution draws on the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program's official eruption count, published by March 31, 2027. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle handles settlement. VEI 6 events are rare; only a handful have occurred globally in the past century.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J7807VVNP1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.053,
    "implied_probability": 0.053
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J7807VVNP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LJ985D1D01",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9f66a23ca0d5d66fd89b1b37868ef39885b0f36b6e2c8003bdd8239fd58300b6",
      "question": "Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled \"Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)\" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be c",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program publishes the VEI 6 eruption count for 2026 as of March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled \"Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)\" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.\n\nIf this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.\n\nNote: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://volcano.si.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "volcano.si.edu",
            "url": "https://volcano.si.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "volcano.si.edu",
            "url": "https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "volcano.si.edu",
            "url": "https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "national or regional volcanic observatories",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 79,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.053,
      "implied_probability": 0.053,
      "volume_24h_usd": 83.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 121277.69128800003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "natural-disaster",
        "vei",
        "volcanic eruption",
        "volcano"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LJ985D1D01",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}