{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
  "slug": "makerfield-by-election-winner",
  "question": "Will the winner of the Makerfield by-election be determined?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "uk-politics",
    "by-election",
    "2026",
    "burnham"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Makerfield parliamentary by-election. Polymarket lists individual binary contracts per named candidate, each resolving via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official published results. All contracts are mutually exclusive; exactly one candidate contract resolves YES. Resolution source is the official UK electoral returning officer's published result.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TWFRXPW8S6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.015
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x77954e0830eafc9539916c591f717fb0635f6483bc9949524cb46483cd9b9d39",
      "question": "Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Andy Burnham: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
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            "url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Wigan Council",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.74,
      "implied_probability": 0.74,
      "volume_24h_usd": 155722.39902499996,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5NBJTH28J7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xabe82a80c5f69b8a663c5491946a3c62ccd056f17372269a80be084eb766ee22",
      "question": "Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Simon Finkelstein: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
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        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x55a68ce06774f6d4e89c9204c912d3a4f83b30c723ef6ba0f05c1386d27765ee",
      "question": "Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Maria Deery: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Wigan Council",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.002,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWFRXPW8S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x85980a4d08e4cf7911782b632108d17b124171c1e1610cf7861e260c6daf3538",
      "question": "Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Rebecca Shepherd: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Wigan Council",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "caps": [],
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MPXKCDJK12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x18eb70a283488e830978d3866b3ec56fef840d4b7223a3609a883d9b6fad29fa",
      "question": "Will Candidate C win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 0,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZWXKRH8W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf19a1d92f4ce15e56111403e564b58250d8fa734f82d6bab3004b6784bc6b3e",
      "question": "Will Candidate E win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate E: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "wigan.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Wigan Council",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GR2KHS2Q21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbfb4064a8a13c9293d3cf4ae1cd5ce8c4c1249234190f8aede4240bd5315112f",
      "question": "Will Candidate G win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate G: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "wigan.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Wigan Council",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0D1ZD1NRD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8134ed311bc3187dbd80050a2aa12c12e4605b0e899ae7c7b306b38fbb454527",
      "question": "Will Candidate I win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate I: The candidate elected in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election resolves according to official results published by the UK Electoral Commission by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "wigan.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}