{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NQTGG285H5",
  "slug": "makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will Makina FDV trade above ___ one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "makina",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Makina's fully diluted valuation one day after token launch, resolving January 2027. All four markets are on Polymarket, structured as binary strikes at $80M, $100M, $200M, and $300M FDV thresholds. Together they form an implied probability distribution across valuation tiers at launch. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, measuring FDV as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid available venue.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CJC7GBMY30",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T18:00:40.088Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CJC7GBMY30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NQTGG285H5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa2875a4687e1eb79e61d281e02d4b818265d0f1c8e33709ebe9bc564b7aef889",
      "question": "Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$80M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T18:00:40.088Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9591.807237,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 80000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8A6791C9E6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "makina",
        "makina fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DK1VLXYM66",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NQTGG285H5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x91edbbe0e07534453f7fc775dbe25252191d6f24d06d5739b8f763ac1eeed958",
      "question": "Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T10:00:37.129Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6195.608636,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3D09B655F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "makina",
        "makina fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y9503KSZY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NQTGG285H5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8f4e3d36b06f9135a9bbcf17d678e6496a300413cc49e250cde8ee3d8b607250",
      "question": "Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.075,
      "implied_probability": 0.075,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.83,
      "volume_total_usd": 7019.9104449999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8A2CF8BB85",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "makina",
        "makina fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C1FBZ03MS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NQTGG285H5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x666f702dfacc1139405b7c17f4aa542cd6bf50a169075da9ae7efb85298d85a6",
      "question": "Makina FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:5",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Makina's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Makina doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.055,
      "implied_probability": 0.055,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.81,
      "volume_total_usd": 3730.629955000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A30B78D414",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "makina",
        "makina fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NQTGG285H5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}