{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9HV2LCD070",
  "slug": "masoud-pezeshkian-out-by",
  "question": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian be out of office in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "leadership-succession",
    "2026",
    "removal-or-resignation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian leaves office before each respective deadline. The four binary contracts form a sequential probability term structure: March 31, April 30, June 30, and December 31, 2026. Later-dated contracts must price at or above earlier ones by no-arbitrage logic. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, triggered by cessation of office or a formal removal or resignation announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YVLZSGZPB2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6Q8YSCMDB1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9HV2LCD070",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd01e1b540e6472789ddb1e4883b566b7964546521fb0d2908d095fa7bc4d37b4",
      "question": "Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The named individual ceases to hold the specified office or an announcement of resignation/removal occurs before July 1, 2026, 08:47 UTC, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:31:25Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 288543.5877650006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "masoud pezeshkian",
        "president",
        "removal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YVLZSGZPB2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9HV2LCD070",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3ed92a5a51371e8ba5882ae743ccf90460c8860fdd862a9389e249d0a2b9f055",
      "question": "Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: The named individual ceases to hold the specified office or an announcement of resignation/removal occurs before July 1, 2026, 08:47 UTC, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T08:47:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 322384.31773399963,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "masoud pezeshkian",
        "president",
        "removal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QG88CXSKF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9HV2LCD070",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e80f6cc475d7940ce26db5ee997b28ee80c50170ce7aa8af2d104c947c8e5e3",
      "question": "Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The named individual ceases to hold the specified office or an announcement of resignation/removal occurs before July 1, 2026, 08:47 UTC, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 749.550972,
      "volume_total_usd": 230128.62406500004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "masoud pezeshkian",
        "president",
        "removal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-95XBZGLZ37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9HV2LCD070",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8fb6936ae7f5ee15170825aad109c9939f89bcd9922aa16cb1fb73e034259881",
      "question": "Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: The named individual ceases to hold the specified office or an announcement of resignation/removal occurs before July 1, 2026, 08:47 UTC, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T07:41:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 27435.147719000008,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "masoud pezeshkian",
        "president",
        "removal"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YVLZSGZPB2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T08:47:35Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-95XBZGLZ37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T07:41:00Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6Q8YSCMDB1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T06:31:25Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9HV2LCD070",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}