{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
  "slug": "meloni-out-as-prime-minister-of-italy-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Meloni be out as Prime Minister of Italy by the settlement date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "italy",
    "prime-minister",
    "meloni",
    "2026",
    "government-leadership"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Giorgia Meloni exits the Italian Prime Minister role before each respective 2026 deadline. All four are Polymarket binary contracts, structured as sequential strike dates across 2026: June 30, July 31, September 30, and December 31. Earlier deadlines imply lower probability; later deadlines nest the earlier outcomes. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8MQWP10VM3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xc51baec7a14a60ee2474e0b4c90cc28f78c3ca8b7af7e918d771097e05edb419",
      "question": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "the government of Italy",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T11:01:16.293Z",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:09:27Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "question": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T17:01:10.128Z",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FRSLJ8K5D6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffbcdc2256cb0149f2dda67557c1e95b4b3b41c4d08bbb255e877c97b3c119d4",
      "question": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:17:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
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