{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
  "slug": "meloni-out-as-prime-minister-of-italy-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Meloni be out as Prime Minister of Italy by the settlement date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "italy",
    "executive-leadership",
    "2026",
    "government-stability",
    "european-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Giorgia Meloni exits the Italian Prime Minister role before three successive 2026 deadlines: June 30, July 31, and December 31. The markets are structured as sequential binary strikes; a June 30 resolution yes implies the July 31 and December 31 markets also resolve yes. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly verifiable records of Meloni's tenure. The December 31 contract carries the widest exposure window and thus the highest implied probability.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FRSLJ8K5D6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQHD3HQWT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc51baec7a14a60ee2474e0b4c90cc28f78c3ca8b7af7e918d771097e05edb419",
      "question": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the government of Italy",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 167.056817,
      "volume_total_usd": 23477.095618000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "giorgia meloni italy",
        "italy",
        "meloni",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8MQWP10VM3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9916a24de0b3a007c251ef565c73daa9db633bc8c18b161496fe7e75565c716a",
      "question": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the government of Italy",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 469.105103,
      "volume_total_usd": 69875.34798199995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "giorgia meloni italy",
        "italy",
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        "politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FRSLJ8K5D6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffbcdc2256cb0149f2dda67557c1e95b4b3b41c4d08bbb255e877c97b3c119d4",
      "question": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:17:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the government of Italy",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 58,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 68334.59841699993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "italy",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FRSLJ8K5D6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:17:52Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z4H3Z6CDG5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}