{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2R20R8Q1",
  "slug": "meta-mango-model-released-by",
  "question": "Will Meta release a \"Mango\" model in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "meta",
    "model-release",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Meta releases its \"Mango\" large language model by specified deadlines. Both markets are on Polymarket and price binary outcomes against two strike dates: March 31 and June 30, 2026. The March 31 market resolved at 2026-04-01T10:06:59Z per Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The June 30 market remains open, pricing residual release probability within the extended window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GR3WW8D0W1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GR3WW8D0W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2R20R8Q1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x92ae32e630cd769db43372d58615af2d989bfdcd72ed9166ff9cc03ec6fd9875",
      "question": "Meta \"Mango\" model released by March 31?",
      "description": "Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of i",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.\n\nA qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.\n\nUpgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation. \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public. \n\nA publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "finance.yahoo.com",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Meta",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Meta",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 19794.432785,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6F07960CC9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "mango",
        "meta",
        "meta mango model",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFP36N60S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2R20R8Q1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe2b3aca20d136af79f908b7c9cba9832b338e2c02083aa114444f273621b17b4",
      "question": "Meta \"Mango\" model released by June 30?",
      "description": "Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of i",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.\n\nA qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.\n\nUpgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation. \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public. \n\nA publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "finance.yahoo.com",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Meta",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "official information from Meta",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 6788.955694000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DADC516DCE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "mango",
        "meta",
        "meta mango model",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFP36N60S6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T11:17:52Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GR3WW8D0W1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T10:06:59Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JH2R20R8Q1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}