{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
  "slug": "mi-01-democratic-primary-winner-20260702201408652",
  "question": "Will a Democrat win the Michigan's 1st congressional district primary election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "michigan",
    "democratic-primary",
    "2026",
    "us-congress"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic primary outcome for Michigan's 1st Congressional District, closing August 4, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as parallel binary contracts on named candidates: Barr, Blomquist, and Stiles, plus residual slots. All seven contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official Democratic Party certification. Exactly one contract settles YES; the rest settle NO.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MZ8LW57MG7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.7,
    "implied_probability": 0.7
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MZ8LW57MG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8beae7622a3a657b92af1728320b928e5565d420e3de90b51c98459b1ac85c94",
      "question": "Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Callie Barr: The Democratic Party nominee for the referenced congressional district, as confirmed by official Democrat sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 888.749134,
      "volume_total_usd": 7618.1634460000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "callie barr",
        "democratic primary",
        "mi-01",
        "michigan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZDZ3C5XNS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x72164d1367b6a51db89d88cf40bac9731040e25cfedaa08246941a9ba957d772",
      "question": "Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kyle Blomquist: The Democratic Party nominee for the referenced congressional district, as confirmed by official Democrat sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 760.1818610000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 4673.312937,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D7ZGHSPYT7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2e9e575137d111ee643224d4e062bfdbfc8f902c743709e191f90e54338c2c1c",
      "question": "Will Wayne Stiles be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Wayne Stiles: The Democratic Party nominee for the referenced congressional district, as confirmed by official Democrat sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 915.1800000000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "mi-01",
        "michigan",
        "wayne stiles"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GYX7BDY6P6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee73604b392dda9a3b5650cd33cc1914cb6a250afeaacdc02d36fe051295c860",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: The Democratic Party nominee for the referenced congressional district, as confirmed by official Democrat sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "mi-01",
        "michigan"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZJVXR39MS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf3af4ca8aedcd9546fd613e7804434c626ae6f6ad6ea13fe00e91403d9e52a3f",
      "question": "Will Candidate B be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The Democratic Party nominee for the referenced congressional district, as confirmed by official Democrat sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic primary",
        "mi-01",
        "michigan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-98C9FCRL35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8c894abe2474c1bd710fafc334e50dcbbbfe7df8a5bab09a760c8ecbcd14ae41",
      "question": "Will Candidate C be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The Democratic Party nominee for the referenced congressional district, as confirmed by official Democrat sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic primary",
        "mi-01",
        "michigan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4WZGHMVNS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x14af5bec8d40acff17d0b46be960dee46bd9eef863946ce1b5bba25ffe257ddd",
      "question": "Will another candidate be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The Democratic Party nominee for the referenced congressional district, as confirmed by official Democrat sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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