{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RGK1DL82N5",
  "slug": "mi-01-house-election-winner",
  "question": "Will the Michigan 1st Congressional District House race be won by a Republican in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "us-house",
    "michigan",
    "2026-election",
    "congressional-race"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the winner of Michigan's 1st Congressional District House election on November 3, 2026. Polymarket structures the event across two tiers: party-level outcome markets and individual candidate markets. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Federal Election Commission official results. Candidate placeholders A through E will map to certified entrants as the race develops.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LCVGQBZQ25",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.85,
    "implied_probability": 0.85
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCVGQBZQ25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RGK1DL82N5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd7c59cca3a923d7518701a22f9ae3adbb792cc4b89dee82f7d430684a9f2ea77",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party win the MI-01 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican Party: The Federal Election Commission official results for the MI-01 House seat election on November 3, 2026, determine the winning candidate's party affiliation.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1067,
      "volume_total_usd": 10605.205934000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "mi-01",
        "michigan",
        "republican party"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "0xfb76d3f971fb5b3d900e0fa8bbc9ceff4fd275a23730dd31e49de91ad1385fb0",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 55,
      "volume_total_usd": 8357.158624000002,
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf960a7c5b475555ce29bdeb7bdc03c7c7929d74978e8af57c84424d30462cec",
      "question": "Will another party win the MI-01 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
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      "underlying_reference": "Other: The Federal Election Commission official results for the MI-01 House seat election on November 3, 2026, determine the winning candidate's party affiliation.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "mi-01",
        "michigan",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9P821YCG16",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RGK1DL82N5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x286990c8efbddd71ca9336a71e45535a08c75def926a1b31d0531aa5352fdef4",
      "question": "Will A win the MI-01 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A: The Federal Election Commission official results for the MI-01 House seat election on November 3, 2026, determine the winning candidate's party affiliation.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D9916VSBC8",
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      "question": "Will B win the MI-01 House seat?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-66DF4RXF94",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RGK1DL82N5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xfe83fe8c48b2ecb17c9668e617db1bea2cf78a32e7fc3a7691d9e10637f64cf2",
      "question": "Will C win the MI-01 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "C: The Federal Election Commission official results for the MI-01 House seat election on November 3, 2026, determine the winning candidate's party affiliation.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "mi-01",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NRY563HX98",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RGK1DL82N5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8b95d112942a692298e973bc0d85a3aa894ea59e5dfa96e4884ff7cf1aabe4b5",
      "question": "Will D win the MI-01 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "D: The Federal Election Commission official results for the MI-01 House seat election on November 3, 2026, determine the winning candidate's party affiliation.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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